UK Commercial Property Update December not the turning point for investment market activity Our view is that the sharp rise in the value of commercial property deals in December does not herald markedly more buoyant investment market activity in 2009. Admittedly, activity may lift a bit this... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property: are we underestimating small country risk? Over the next two years, we expect the best performing euro-zone commercial property markets to be Greece, Finland and Portugal. All are forecast to deliver better total returns than core markets such... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review, mid-year 2008 The latest De Montfort University report on bank lending to commercial property, if anything, only adds to the gloom hanging over the sector. What’s more, since it relates only to the first half of... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
Western European interest rates and bond yields set to tumble (Q1 2009) Much of Europe faces a year of contracting GDP, falling profits and rising unemployment in 2009 and, perhaps 2010. In the Euro-zone, we expect a widespread contraction in GDP, but, with the exception... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weaker pound will not prompt a surge in overseas investment The depreciation of the pound has been one of the few positives for the UK commercial property market over the past year. After all, for overseas investors, the pound’s fall has made UK property far... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe to underperform the Euro-zone (Q1 2009) With very few exceptions, total returns in noneuro European commercial property markets are, on average, forecast to be negative in 2009 and 2010, before recovering in 2011 and beyond. (See Charts 1... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property downturn to exceed the slumps of the 1970s and 1990s (Q4 08) Although it might have been scarcely believable when we published the previous Analyst three months ago, the economic outlook has taken a further major turn for the worse. We now expect a serious... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Property in business: a waste of space? How things look now Since the publication of our original Waste of Space report in 2002, we estimate that firms in the UK have taken action that has resulted in annual property-related cost savings of about 1% of GDP... 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is commercial property now fairly valued? At recent levels of bond yields, taking a view over 10 years or more, a plausible central case is that fair-value property yields are about 6%. But because the immediate outlook for rents is poor, for... 8th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Occupier market outlook weaker; deeper property price correction is the result (Q3 08) There is no immediate end in sight to the commercial property yield correction and, on the back of downgrades to our general economic views since the previous Analyst, we have revised down our... 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus West End office rental values set to slump We now expect West End office rental values to fall by 5%y/y this year, by 15% in 2009 and by a further 5% in 2010. This is in spite of the well-documented absence of a significant pipeline of new... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What are the prospects for lending to commercial property? In a plausible central scenario, the amount of debt that banks make available to the commercial property market will fall by more than two-thirds, from a total of over £300bn between 2003 and 2007 to... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Secondary property still set to do worse than prime To date, secondary capital values have fallen by less than prime. As the economy deteriorates, however, we continue to believe that the fundamental desirability of prime buildings will mean that they... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have commercial property lending data remained so strong? According to the Bank of England (BoE), the net increase in the stock of loans on banks’ balance sheets secured against commercial property was £9bn in Q1. That was the second highest quarterly total... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review - full year 2007 The headline results from the De Montfort University Review of the UK Commercial Property Lending Market for 2007 have already been widely disseminated, and confirmed anecdotal reports of a sharp... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Too soon to look for the trough in commercial property prices (Q2 08) Our commercial property forecasts are broadly unchanged. We still expect a total fall in capital values of between 25% and 30%. In other words, according to IPD data which now show that capital values... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
