UK Commercial Property Update Fewer consumer-related jobs points to further retail rental value falls Retail sales have outperformed non-retail sales during the recession to date. Were that outperformance to continue it could be argued that the prospects for retail rental values are brighter than... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Credit Conditions survey and PMI data don’t alter weak property outlook Today’s Credit Conditions survey from the Bank of England showed that the supply of mortgage finance appears to be slowly improving, but does not change our view that further price falls are very... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook darkens as jobs shake-out gathers pace Thanks to a comparatively small labour market downturn, rental value falls for prime property in Germany have been mild relative to elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, with growing signs that the... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CBI/PwC financial services survey provides little comfort for offices Monday’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey received a reasonable amount of media coverage due to the more upbeat tone of its results. At first glance, that might appear to suggest an imminent upturn... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s inventory correction not over yet The 5.9% m/m increase in industrial production in May, which followed an identical rise in April, supports our long-held view that Japan will be among the first of the major economies to return to... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, June 2009 Property markets were not a key feature of the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR). However, the focus of the report, on tighter regulation in future, adds to the case for... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker currencies unlikely to halt Scandinavian property downturn Weaker currencies will have made commercial property in Sweden and Norway much cheaper for overseas investors to purchase. However, we doubt that this will prompt a surge in foreign capital inflows to... 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone PMIs suggest rental values will not stabilise this year June’s flash PMIs for the euro-zone showed a modest improvement compared to May, largely driven by a rise in the manufacturing index. Falls in the service sector index, however, suggest that occupier... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Asset protection scheme unlikely materially to boost foreclosures It has recently been put to us by a few clients that, counter to the Government’s best intentions, the Asset Protection Scheme (APS) will actually encourage lenders to foreclose on existing commercial... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging Europe rental prospects still best in Poland and Czech Rep We have recently nudged up our economic growth forecasts for Poland and the Czech Republic. However, our revisions still leave growth well below trend, which will do little to boost occupier demand... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poor labour market data emphasise weak outlook for rental values The rate of decline in euro-zone employment accelerated sharply in the first three months of 2009 and, although survey measures of employment intentions have picked up a little, further significant... 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Were rental value falls a sign of things to come in Russia? Developments in the commercial property market normally tend to follow developments in the real economy with a lag. But with hindsight, it seems that the devastating falls in rental values reported in... 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do office and retail property share a common fair-value benchmark? One simple assumption that we have employed to date in our analysis of European commercial property markets is that, in any given market, the fair-value property/bond yield spread for office and... 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Economic forecast revisions: net effect on property is negligible Yesterday we revised up our economic forecasts. (See various Updates, available to clients on our website, for more details.) Although we still expect growth to remain weak, at the margin, the new... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Corporate bonds comparison suggests property not necessarily cheap Tenant default and loss of rental income are now perhaps the foremost concerns for commercial property investors. As such, it is far from clear that property is undervalued, even though yields are now... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime office yield convergence: a temporary phase? Since mid-2007, the yield gap for prime office property in five of the euro-zone’s larger office markets has narrowed sharply. To us, this convergence suggests that, to date, investors have not placed... 5th June 2009 · 1 min read
