UK Commercial Property Focus Total returns in 2010: how good could they get? The sharp rebound in investor sentiment and the sheer weight of equity poised to (re-)enter the market make it plausible that commercial property total returns could hit 15% next year. 28th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Irish and Greek retail rental values hit hard by downturn In our most recent Euro-zone Commercial Property Analyst (Vol. No. 2/2009) we forecast that Greece and Ireland would experience the largest falls in retail rental values. The agents’ latest data... 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sweden: retail and industrial rental values are not in the clear yet Retail and industrial rental values in Sweden have held up well relative to the office sector since the onset of recession. This is somewhat surprising given the huge rise in unemployment and collapse... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prospects for Turkish property still weak in the short-term The Turkish economy returned to growth in 2009Q2. Accordingly, we have nudged up our GDP forecasts for this year and next. Yet we are not convinced that these revisions will be enough to reverse the... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property still looks pricey relative to equities The stock market rally has pushed the equity dividend yield down, making euro-zone commercial property look more attractive relative to equities, on one measure at least. However, the spread of the... 15th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Development activity may be at a floor, but outlook still weak Construction orders for new commercial property have fallen sharply during the recession. However, with the economy showing some signs of improvement, they may now have reached a floor. At the same... 14th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why have Polish industrial rental values been so resilient? Several factors have contributed to the resilience of industrial rental values in Poland. But downward pressure on Polish industrial rents continues to build and we do not think that more substantial... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank lending to property: what’s in the numbers? The Bank of England (BoE) recently switched from publishing quarterly commercial property lending data to releasing them monthly. Given that these data generate an above-average number of client... 9th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What has happened to industrial yields in Iberia? Industrial yields in Spain and Portugal moved out sharply in the first half of 2009. This is not surprising given the outlook for rental values in these economies as the recession bites. We expect... 3rd September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Polish expansion will be too weak to support rental values GDP data released late last week, suggest that the Polish economy may avoid recession this year. That suggests that the risks to our forecasts for a 45% peak-to-trough fall in capital values may now... 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underplaying signs of an occupier market recovery? As well as evidence of improving investor sentiment, there have also recently been signs that occupier demand may be firming. Even so, there are good reasons to believe that the peak-to-trough decline... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will confident consumers protect Italian retail market rents? The latest survey data from the ISAE show that Italian household confidence rose for the fifth consecutive month in August. On the face of it, this is encouraging news for the Italian retail... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German occupier outlook weak despite growth in the economy The outlook for the German occupier market remains weak, despite the fact that the economy grew in Q2. We think that the labour market, which has held up well to date, could weaken in the second half... 25th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris further through the office rental value correction Paris has been among those Western European cities which have seen the sharpest declines in office rental values to date. However, we do not think that Paris has suffered disproportionately. Rather... 21st August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook The emerging recovery will gather momentum this year, but will fade during 2010 (Q3 09) Evidence that a revival is underway in the commercial property investment market continues to build. Given that and the upward revisions to our economic growth forecasts for 2010, we have increased... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment market activity poised to rise; capital values could stabilise Commercial property transactions now seem to have found a floor, but we doubt that they will suddenly rebound strongly. Even so, it seems more likely than not that market activity levels will improve... 17th August 2009 · 1 min read
