UK Commercial Property Update Retail outperformance is narrowly based The retail sector again recorded the largest rise in capital values in February. However, the recent outperformance of the retail sector has been driven almost exclusively by retail warehouses. To us... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Does the fall in speculative industrial development matter? At the margin, the continued fall in the speculative industrial development pipeline can only be a support for medium-term rental value growth prospects in this sector. However, we still suspect that... 12th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Turkish property yields peaked? Their recent stabilisation suggests that the correction in Turkish property yields may now be over. With a relatively healthy outlook for the economy, and signs already emerging that rental values are... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the boom turn to bust ... again? The lessons from 1993/94 The current surge in commercial property capital values broadly mirrors the rebound seen in 1993/94 as the economy emerged from the last recession. That episode, however, gave way to renewed capital... 9th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Will German office rental values lag behind during the recovery? German office rental value growth lagged behind other major markets between 2004 and 2008, but we do not expect a repeat performance over the next few years. We think that the fundamental supports for... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Does the property derivatives market know something we don’t? Current commercial property derivatives prices suggest that IPD total returns this year will be markedly lower than either our expectations or the IPF Consensus forecasts. The derivatives market may... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors reveal a liquidity preference A closer look at the movement in French commercial property yields supports the idea that liquidity remains a key consideration for investors as office yields have fallen more sharply than retail or... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hope for a Swedish occupier and investment market recovery fade Q4’s dreadful GDP data for Sweden may have pushed back any recovery in commercial property occupier demand and rental values. Together with the prospect of a rising level of distressed sales, we also... 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong rise in Danish property investment does not yet signal recovery The surge in Danish commercial property investment volumes in 2009Q4 is not as encouraging as it first seems. Although the economy is now expanding again, the 7% peak-to-trough fall in GDP will mean... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Long road to recovery for Finnish and Portuguese retail rents Retail rental values in Helsinki and Lisbon have fallen by more than the euro-zone average. Helsinki has been hit by a steep drop in Finnish consumer spending, while increased supply has added to... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack London office rents rise, but all-property average to fall further (Mar 10) The economy remains subdued, with the public finances in a poor state, retail sales declining sharply in January and unemployment rising again. All of this simply reinforces our view that GDP will... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Q4’s Brussels office occupier market rebound sustainable? The spectacular rebound in office take-up in Brussels at the end of 2009 does not appear to be a total one-off. Indeed, relatively strong underlying demand and service sector sentiment suggests that... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Standard industrials & distribution warehouses: the outlook Over the next 4-5 years, driven by the recovery in the UK’s manufacturing sector, standard industrial annual total returns could average 10% to 11%. That would be higher than prospective returns from... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Increased supply will weigh on Italian office rental values Although office rental values in Italy have held up reasonably well over the past eighteen months, a slow recovery in the economy and a rise in development completions suggest that this will not last... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A rally built on shaky fundamentals (Q1 10) We have revised up our near-term commercial property forecasts and expect average IPD capital values to rise by about 10% this year. That is consistent with a very strong total return of about 18%. 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging Europe: credit and the investment market outlook There are tentative signs that credit conditions are easing in some Emerging European economies. This may raise hopes that commercial property investment markets in the region could rebound this year... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
