UK Commercial Property Update “Delay and pray” continues; low interest rates crucial for outlook The latest De Montfort University (DMU) Lending Review makes uncomfortable reading for the commercial property market, showing that a full 20% of outstanding loans by value are now distressed. For now... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q1 10) The latest RICS Construction Survey suggested that the sector as a whole returned to growth in Q1. Commercial property construction led that recovery, implying that developers’ optimism about the... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How secure is the recovery in Western European capital values? Recent falls in property yields have lifted capital values in most markets, particularly in Norway and France. But this trend is unlikely to last. Indeed, we think that the yield recovery is likely to... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the outlook for Hungarian commercial property improved? While recent news on the Hungarian economy has been surprisingly positive, we are not yet convinced that a sustainable economic recovery is underway. Among other things, Hungary’s fragile banking... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Capital values more likely to plateau than peak (Q2 10) Our major macroeconomic forecasts have not changed since the previous Analyst and, broadly speaking, neither have our expectations for the commercial property market. We still expect capital values to... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is commercial property development activity about to surge? Although the recent upturn in the commercial construction PMI is encouraging, it does not necessarily signal a sustained and significant upturn in the commercial property supply pipeline. But even if... 14th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will falls in Western European yields be extended? Commercial property offers a seemingly attractive premium over bonds. However, once we factor in the weaker economic and occupier market outlook, to us most Western European markets look pricey. We... 13th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher pound unlikely to prompt overseas investor exodus We think that a stronger exchange rate over the next year or so is a very real prospect. If that is right, fears may arise of an exodus of overseas investors from the UK commercial property market. We... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will German funds accelerate the investment market recovery? In the short-term, March’s €535 million net inflow into German open-ended property funds is likely to boost European commercial property investment volumes and may add to the downwards pressure on... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the recovery in Norwegian industrial yields got ahead of itself? Having fallen by 100bps since their high in mid-2009, industrial yields in Norway are beginning to look overvalued relative to bonds as well as both office and retail markets. Given that, Q1 2010’s... 7th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rebound in Moscow office take-up looks unsustainable The rise in take-up in the Moscow office market in Q1 2010 may be less encouraging than it first seems. Indeed, given the large volume of completions, the improvement in demand was only enough to... 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Apr 10) The latest PMI suggests that the rebound in commercial construction activity accelerated in April. This points to growing developer confidence in the outlook for tenant demand and rents. For now... 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Conflicting signals for investment demand Recent property lending and pooled funds flows data may signal that the upswing in capital values will run further than is commonly assumed. However, with credit supply unlikely to ease materially... 4th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Growing divergence across Emerging European property markets The upbeat message on Poland from yesterday’s Q1 2010 RICS global survey broadly fits with our view that Polish property will be among the best performers in Europe this year. But we are less... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response GVA Grimley/Henley Business School survey (H1 10) Respondents to the latest GVA Grimley Corporate Real Estate Survey (formerly produced in conjunction with the CBI, but now with Henley Business School) were confident about their business prospects... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights fragility of Western European occupier markets Today’s Q1 2010 RICS global commercial property survey broadly supports our view that the weak occupier market outlook will drive capital values at least a little lower this year in most Western... 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
