UK Commercial Property Update How important are currency shifts to investment demand? The time series data on cross-border commercial property investment flows have a short history. But, not surprisingly in our view, they suggest that exchange rates are a far less important influence... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Romania’s property outlook is deteriorating Our recent GDP growth forecast downgrade for Romania has strong implications for its property market outlook. This Update analyses the prospects for rental values and yields this year and next. 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CMBS may be less of a problem than is feared The downside risks to property prices from failed refinancing of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) could linger for much of this decade. Over the next one to two years, however, relatively... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Swiss commercial property outperformance last? Our more upbeat forecasts for the Swiss economy relative to the euro-zone do not imply that Swiss property will continue to outperform. Indeed, we see yields staying put until 2012, meaning that its... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany will lag the industrial property recovery in France Despite a stronger recovery in German industrial production, the French industrial property market is performing better than Germany’s. While we suspect that the extent of that relative outperformance... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail may lag behind as investors shift to non-prime property Past experience suggests that the current trend for investors to target the income generating qualities of the best secondary stock is a comparatively low-risk strategy. Yet, even leaving aside any... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sustained rises in Dutch office vacancy rates will impact rental values To date, Dutch office rental values have proved remarkably resilient to the sharp spike in vacancy rates. Yet, with demand still weakening and new supply still running at uncomfortably high levels, if... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Rental values set to rise next year, but recovery will be slow Upward revisions in the latest survey pushed the IPF Consensus into line with our own view that IPD all-property rental values will stabilise later this year and rise modestly in 2011. Yet, depending... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Emerging European capital values on the road to recovery? The sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone is bound to weigh heavily on the outlook for Emerging Europe, moderating, if not reversing, hopes for an occupier and investment market recovery. Thus, in... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (May), Commercial property lending (Apr.) and Mergers & acquisitions (Q1) The latest CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that commercial property rental values will end 2010 higher than they started it. Given the weak economic outlook, that still seems a little optimistic... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What caused Belgian industrial rents to plunge in Q1? The sharp fall in Belgian industrial rental values in Q1 was probably just a delayed response to the depth of the recession. In any event, we expect the Belgian economy to grow a little faster than... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will real UK commercial property rental values stay flat? Over the next 20 to 30 years, in contrast with the flat trend that has been experienced since the 1950s, we think that real UK commercial property rental values could rise slightly. As a guide, our... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) Although the gap has narrowed, the IPF Consensus is slightly less upbeat than we are about the commercial property market’s prospects for the rest of 2010 and 2011. Thereafter, however, we remain more... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the resilience of French retail rents last? Although French retail rental values have barely fallen to date, we do not think that their resilience will last. With the economic recovery faltering, and figures released today showing that consumer... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Lower bond yields to help property yields fall further (Jun 10) The economy grew slightly faster in Q1 (0.3%) than originally thought (0.2%), but the bigger picture is that the outlook remains soft. Employment has started to fall again and a painful fiscal squeeze... 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do Emerging European property markets offer good value? Some valuation measures indicate that Emerging European commercial property markets now offer good value. However, the deepening fiscal crisis in the euro-zone has led to a marked drop in risk... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
