UK Commercial Property Update Will regional office markets follow London’s lead in 2011? Notwithstanding some less encouraging recent news (e.g. yesterday’s reports of looming job cuts at Barclays Capital), London’s City and West End office occupier markets are in recovery mode. Past... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Paris retail yields too low? Compared to offices, history suggests that retail property yields in Paris are too low. The weak outlook for consumer spending and the stronger outlook for office rental value growth point to the same... 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How far do Emerging European headline rents respond to FX swings? Our analysis of the recent recession confirms that the volatility of headline retail rents in Emerging Europe can be exacerbated by swings in the exchange rate. Indeed, we estimate that each 1% fall... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul 10) The latest PMI reported that commercial property construction activity rose again in July. These data suggest that developers remain confident about a rental recovery by early 2011. Our view is that... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Fading sentiment signals an end to capital value gains It is pretty clear that property investors’ sentiment has cooled in recent weeks. Accordingly there seems to be little scope for further gains in capital values. But with bond yields likely to stay... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Q2) Net lending to commercial property in Q2 was very weak. Admittedly, anecdotal evidence suggests that lenders’ wariness to the sector may have eased slightly in more recent weeks. But with their... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack GDP strong in Q2, but property market likely to cool further (Aug 10) The economy grew surprisingly strongly in Q2. Indeed, the pace of expansion, at 1.1%q/q, was double the consensus expectation. Manufacturing, financial & business services and distributive trades (e.g... 28th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital (REC) survey suggested that rental and capital values will be largely unchanged over the next 12 to 18 months. In the absence of an obvious trigger (e.g. higher... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italy: the best of a bad bunch? The Q2 2010 RICS global commercial property survey points to a divergence in commercial property performance between Italy and the rest of the so-called “PIIGS”. That is consistent with our view that... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow office rents are more likely to stabilise than recover The increase in Moscow office rental values in Q2 is likely to prove a one-off. Although the occupier market has seen a continued improvement over the past few quarters, we think that the main driving... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Short-term prospects for industrial rents still subdued Forward-looking indicators of industrial production have cooled a little, though there are some better signs for employment in this sector. The latter suggests that the floor for industrial rental... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2 10) The tone of today’s RICS survey was downbeat and is probably a timely reminder that commercial property occupier demand and rental values remain vulnerable to further job cuts. Although we still think... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poland vs. the Czech Republic: where are retail prospects brightest? Recent data releases support our view that the Polish retail property market will outperform that of the Czech Republic over the next few years. Indeed, although we do not expect a blistering recovery... 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Scope for fresh employment falls highlights muted rental prospects The more positive tone of yesterday’s labour market data was encouraging for commercial property rental values, which we still expect to find a floor later this year. However, with public sector job... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q1 10) The number of jobs in the financial and business services (FBS) sector rose strongly in Q1 and anecdotal evidence suggests that hiring has since remained solid. Although regional offices are still... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the CEE property investment market recovery run out of steam? Fading risk appetite among property investors may put the brakes on the current investment market recovery in Emerging Europe. Indeed, while recent falls in property yields have been encouraging, the... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
