UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23)

Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023)

The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes...

29th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4)

The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Latest RICS survey offers little sign of recovery

The latest RICS survey offered tentative signs that we could be past the worst of the property downturn in Europe, as both occupier and investment demand balances picked up slightly. However, the big...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023)

Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Residential yields have further to rise

The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have...

24th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 24)

Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will stabilise in the first quarter of 2024. But given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will...

24th January 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Why we see more distress coming in 2024

We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those...

22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Are capital values close to bottoming out?

Prices of commercial real estate equities suggest capital values will see a strong recovery in the first few months of 2024. But with no prospect of yield compression and rental growth set to slow, we...

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023)

The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on

Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial to join offices as worst-performing sector

We are downbeat on industrial total returns over the next two years compared to the consensus because of our relatively pessimistic views on both rents and cap rates. And we think the risks to long...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Commercial Property Lending (Dec)

Net lending on commercial real estate (CRE) by banks was positive again in December, rising by $4.2bn in the month. (See Table 1.) That said, the monthly change was broadly in line with the average in...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rental slowdown set to continue in 2024

The resilience of euro-zone rental growth last year surprised us. But our analysis indicates that better-than-expected economic activity explained much of that strength and as recession looms in 2024...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Can regional industrial rents outperform?

In contrast to most of the past 20 years, RoUK industrial rental growth has almost matched the South East over the past couple of quarters. But that is unlikely to last. The boost to demand for big...

11th January 2024 · 3 mins read