UK Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to slide 5% in 2012 We think that UK GDP will be flat in 2012 as a whole, with a technical recession likely in H1. Accordingly, commercial property rental values are likely to fall next year and income security fears... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the worst passed for public sector cuts to London office demand? To us, it seems likely that the worst of the effects of fiscal tightening on public sector demand for Central London offices has not yet passed. To be fair, the public sector probably accounts for... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property returns to be dented by the global slowdown Most non-euro-zone European economies will avoid a recession in 2012, but not a marked slowdown in GDP growth. Even so, the weaker outlook for occupier demand suggests that rental value growth in most... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall back in 2012 and 2013 We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Euro-zone heading back into recession The euro-zone economy will lapse back into recession next year as the impact of the fiscal crisis and weaker global growth take their toll. The prospects for economic growth are typically a little... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update IPD yields likely to drift higher in 2012 We do not think that the increase in average property yields of around 80bps that has been recorded on the transactions-based Property Archive data over the past nine months will be mirrored fully by... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the drop in occupier market sentiment a sign of things to come? The weakening in sentiment towards European property markets revealed in the latest RICS survey is unlikely to be temporary. To our minds, if anything, it highlights the downside risks to consensus... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fresh recession in Hungary set to undermine rental values We have recently downgraded our forecasts for the Hungarian economy and now expect GDP to contract by about 0.5% in 2012. This is unlikely to drive a renewed slump in commercial property rental values... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) Today’s PMI showed that commercial property construction continued to expand at a steady pace in October. But with development finance remaining restricted and the economic and, hence, occupier market... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) In Q3, net commercial property lending flows dipped back into negative territory. Given lenders’ high exposure to the sector, along with the rapidly weakening economic backdrop, there seems little... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Office development tax hike adds downside risk to Paris rental outlook This year’s changes to property taxation in Ile de France could result in a larger proportion of the potential office development pipeline being delivered to the market than otherwise might be... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic and property market outlook now even weaker All-property rental values again held broadly steady in September, which has now been the case for 21 months. But this continues to be largely due to Central London office markets. Looking ahead... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outperformance by retail property income unlikely to last Despite the fragile economic backdrop and in contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail property landlords have recently enjoyed positive income growth. In our view, however, with consumer... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update End is in sight for the rally in Moscow property yields Recent declines in Moscow commercial property yields have been steeper than we had expected. Even so, there are now signs that investment demand is softening. If we are right that the economy will... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Income streams unlikely to be immune to weak economic backdrop Over the next 12 to 18 months, we now expect IPD all-property rental values to decline. And there was little in the latest Lease Events Review from Strutt & Parker (S&P) and IPD to suggest that the... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stability of Spanish office capital values won’t last much longer The stability of Spanish office capital values over the past two years does not preclude a second leg to the downturn. If anything, the prospects for office occupier demand and rental values have... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
