UK Commercial Property Update Further bad news for retail occupier demand and rents Tesco’s plan to scale back its new-store expansion won’t have any direct impact on existing occupier demand for retail property. But the decision is symptomatic of wider weakness in consumer spending... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The tone of the latest RICS commercial property survey was very downbeat and supports our view that rental values will decline this year. For now, the consensus forecast is that rents will increase... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rebound in Moscow commercial property prices will stall December’s anti-government protests in Russia will no doubt have put political uncertainty back at the forefront of investors’ minds. Together with the prospect of much weaker economic growth this... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Survey points to sharp slowdown in Central London office rents The results of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey suggest that, over the next six to nine months, Central London office rental value growth will slow pretty sharply from its current rate of... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey poised for a sharp rise in property yields? Given the prospect of a recession in Turkey this year, it could be argued that property yields are currently too low. Indeed, we expect them to increase this year. But their apparent resilience during... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Property lending (Nov.) & CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Dec.) Net lending flows to commercial property rebounded in November but, given the sluggish economy and rising tensions in financial markets, a sustained improvement in the lending environment seems... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q3) Official statistics suggest that sentiment towards commercial property among institutional investors held up fairly well in the third quarter. But more timely monthly figures suggest that net... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower property investment volumes in store for Europe in 2012 If we are right that all euro-zone member states will fall back into recession next year, commercial property investment volumes in the region are likely to be a major casualty. We would not be... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Institutions remain net property sellers Property Archive reported that, thanks to the office sector, investment market activity rose for the seventh month in a row in November. But there are now signs of a nascent sell-off by investing... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about the outlook for Swiss industrial rents? Switzerland does not seem to be awash with vacant industrial property, so the risks of a slump in rental values in this sector over the next year or two are low. But the looming euro-zone recession... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Derivatives pricing highlights downside risks to capital values Given the sharp growth in trading activity in the property futures market, conceptually its pricing data perhaps give a better guide than swaps to the near-term prospects for physical property capital... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q3) Financial and business services (FBS) sector employment rose strongly in Q3, which will have supported Central London office rental values. But a raft of banking job cuts have been announced since Q3... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Spanish retail yields especially vulnerable to a correction? In recent years, the spread between Spanish retail and office yields has switched from positive to negative. This is typical in other countries and also squares with the long-run outperformance by... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will non-bank lending really help the property market? Even if we are right and non-bank financial institutions, e.g. insurance companies and pension funds, start to lend more meaningfully to commercial property this can only ever be a partial and/or... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What will a break-up mean for euro-zone commercial property? The economic and financial market dislocations that will arise from a break-up of the euro-zone will have severe, negative consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Indeed, we think that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we be concerned about institutions’ property sell-off? At face value, net disposals of property by investing institutions in each of the past three months could be a sign that capital values will start to fall again very soon. Equally, however, it could... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
