UK Commercial Property Update Have non-prime yields passed their trough? For the first time since mid-2009, IPD reported that in Q1 2012 yields on lower quality commercial property increased. Not least because of higher distressed loan work-outs, we would be very surprised... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Q1 fall in all-property capital values a sign of what’s to come? Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How is the London office development pipeline holding up? In recent quarters, Central London office vacancy rates have edged higher and the amount of space under construction and set for completion over 2012-13 has risen. This is despite the lack of pre-lets... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property returns to be dented by the euro-zone crisis Non-euro-zone European economies will not be immune to a fresh recession in the euro-zone. We expect all economies in the region to undergo a sharp slowdown in growth or worse. Barring perhaps Poland... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Recession to act as a drag on occupier markets and rents Over the past few months we have seen little reason to alter in either direction our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. With no resolution in sight to the region’s debt crisis, we think that all... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Negative outlook for Swiss office rents The results of the KOF survey released this morning did little to change our view that office rents will decline this year. Subdued economic growth is likely to trigger fresh weakness in the labour... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Recession to extend the falls in capital values Despite the stability of rents in March, IPD all-property capital values fell by a further 0.3%m/m. That was the fifth consecutive decline. Admittedly, the cumulative falls in capital values since... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the low office to retail yield spread sustainable? The current situation, where IPD all-office yields are lower than all-retail yields, is almost unprecedented and, in our view, not sustainable. Consistent with this, our forecasts already envisage... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Relocations are another downside risk to West End office rents Media reports suggest that high West End office rents have begun to push some tenants out of the area. To be fair, evidence that high relative rents cause widespread relocations across the capital’s... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris property yields looking vulnerable to an economic downturn In our view, the plunge in French commercial property investment volumes in the first quarter of 2012 highlights some fundamental weaknesses in the market. And if we are right that the French economy... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can stronger industrial occupier market conditions last? Occupier demand for industrial property increased in Q1 and, given its low starting point, further gains in the near term can’t be ruled out. But the medium-term prospects for the manufacturing and... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Downside risks to Dublin office rental value outlook increase The fact that the Irish economy slipped back into recession in the latter half of last year lends support to our view that, taking 2012 and 2013 together, Dublin office rental values will fall by a... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update No improvement in euro-zone industrial rental value outlook February’s unexpected rise in euro-zone industrial production might raise hopes that the strength of industrial occupier demand in the single currency region has improved. But we are not convinced... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bond sell-off adds to concerns for Spanish and Italian property prices To the extent that the latest sell-off in Spanish and Italian bonds prompts investors to steer clear of commercial property in either market, the resultant drop in liquidity is likely to put upwards... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
