Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too downbeat on Norwegian retail rental values? The strong performance of Norway’s economy in Q1 raises the question whether our retail rental value forecasts may be a touch gloomy. However, given that international retailers are looking to scale... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q1) There was another strong rise in the number of financial and business services (FBS) sector jobs in Q1. Given the normal lags, and barring an economic meltdown, it seems almost certain that Central... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update West End office to residential conversions – too good to last? Strong interest in Central London office to residential conversions is not hard to understand, given that prime house prices command a substantial premium over office usage. But that premium looks... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Madrid likely to underperform relative to Barcelona Office rental values in Spain are forecast to fall by around 15% over 2012-13 as occupier demand weakens further. But on a city level, Madrid is exposed to greater downside risks than Barcelona. This... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower office take-up volumes in store for Germany On past form, the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) seen in Germany in the first quarter is a signal that a sharp fall in office take-up is likely to follow. We expect investment to fall... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rental value outlook brightest in Russia and Turkey Relatively strong domestic demand is likely to support industrial occupier markets in Poland, Russia and Turkey over the next couple of years. This should ensure that all three markets outperform the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investors shun Emerging Europe in the first quarter Most of the non-euro-zone European economies grew in Q1 2012. However, economic sentiment has been below normal in a majority of these countries and property investment volumes fell sharply in CEE in... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why leisure property is set to outperform Leisure property will not be immune to the weak economy in 2012 but, over a three-year horizon, there is cause for optimism. Indeed, our upgraded forecast is that leisure total returns will average at... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update A brighter outlook for Oslo office rents? Reports that office rents in Oslo continued to rise in Q1 seem consistent with the economy’s stronger-than-expected start to the year. And they almost certainly suggest that our forecast of stagnant... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) The commercial property sector saw further negative net lending flows in April. And given the weak economy and lenders’ still-high exposure to the sector, it is hard to see any improvement in lending... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values on track for 6% fall this year All-property capital values edged lower in April and the annual rate of change has now dropped to minus 0.6%. A simple extrapolation from recent figures points to a fall in capital values for 2012 as... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Belgium v the Netherlands: where is the rental value outlook best? For now, the Belgian economy is clearly outperforming its struggling neighbour, the Netherlands. But we expect both to contract this year and next, by a total of between 3% and 4%. Based on the... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update GOEF liquidations dampen medium-term European property outlook In a worst case scenario, over the next five years, some €36bn worth of European property assets could be liquidated by German open-ended property funds (GOEFs). Our downbeat views on the European... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the rally in Bucharest office yields be reversed? The compression in office yields in Bucharest seen over the past two years is hard to reconcile with weak financial service sector activity, and the implied weakening in occupier demand. Therefore, we... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown triggers fall in capital values The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Relapse into recession will extend capital value falls There have been no material changes to the outlook for the UK economy since the previous Analyst and with the double dip in capital values that we have been expecting now evident, we have not altered... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
