Europe Commercial Property Update Is the office development pipeline still a risk to the Paris rental outlook? The latest indicators from the Paris office market suggest that occupier demand is softening while development activity is picking up. Accordingly, our concern that the city will face a supply... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Despite safe-haven status, Swiss property yields likely to rise We think that the safe-haven status of Switzerland’s commercial property market has allowed Swiss all-property yields to fall to very low levels. But now they look stretched and vulnerable to a... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update H1 is done and capital values on track for full-year decline of 6% In the first six months of 2012, all-property rental values have been surprisingly resilient to renewed recession, but the upward trend in yields that we had expected has become reality. On top of the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fall in Bund yields does not change weak property price outlook The sharp fall in 10-year German Bund yields since the end of Q1 has pushed all-property/Bund yield spreads in the euro-zone to new highs. Clearly, property yields now incorporate some allowances for... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are all forecasters too bearish about industrial rents? Despite a recent improvement in some near-term demand indicators, even the most optimistic forecaster in the consensus only expects nominal industrial rents to be 1% higher at end-2013 than they are... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment case for Italian retail has weakened further Early last year, we argued that the investment case for the Italian retail market was weak. If anything, the situation has worsened since then. Indeed, a negative outlook for rents, coupled with... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Do commercial property yields have further to rise? Simple calculations suggest that the rate of future rental growth implied by prevailing property yields is too low, or, in other words, that yields themselves may already have risen far enough. But... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2) Today’s RICS survey showed that the apparent, slight improvement in commercial property occupier market conditions in Q1 did not last in Q2. Given the weak economic backdrop, this was little surprise... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Poland a “core” property market? One of the key messages from JLL’s 2012 Global Real Estate Transparency Index was that CEE markets – especially Poland – have become more transparent relative to Western Europe. But we think that... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Further evidence that London office rents will rise this year A composite indicator that aggregates up a range of individual balances from the CBI/PwC Financial Services survey points to continued, albeit modest growth in Central London office rents in H2. This... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update EC survey suggests euro-zone office rental value forecasts on track The latest snapshot of business and consumer confidence across Europe suggests that conditions in euro-zone occupier markets have deteriorated during the second quarter. However, in the short-term... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The availability of credit in both the residential and commercial property markets fell in Q2. And because of tight wholesale funding conditions, surely related to problems in the euro-zone, lenders... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q1) Official data show that UK investing institutions made further net purchases of property in Q1. Since then, however, Property Archive’s data show that these firms have become net sellers again. The... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update French REIT valuations reflect downside property risks The current low share prices of French REITs relative to NAVs might suggest that there is value in the sector. But given that French property yields are low, and that the economy is likely to contract... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are shopping centre development pipelines in CEE too large? A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
