US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany

While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom.

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to...

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK?

While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes...

28th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Spain logistics rent growth upgrade, but Madrid to trail

Spanish industrial rent growth beat expectations in Q1 this year, outpacing rises elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, this was mainly due to Barcelona, where we have raised our prime rent forecast...

24th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24)

Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024)

Smaller property yield rises and still-solid rental growth left all-property capital values little changed in Q1, a notable improvement on the sharp falls seen since mid-2022. However, we think...

22nd May 2024 · 0 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Latest data offer little optimism for apartment rents

The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow...

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Notes from our residential investment roundtables

At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. Across the...

17th May 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices

The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating...

17th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in...

16th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Consensus agree prime office rental growth to slow

Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we...

15th May 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Hotel demand to recover as cost-of-living crisis abates

Spending on hotels and overseas visits to the UK are still not back to their pre-COVID-19 levels. But with cost-of-living pressures set to ease around the world and consumer spending likely to outpace...

15th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Storms on the horizon for West Coast port markets

After a prolonged period of weakness, the West Coast ports have seen an improvement in trade volumes recently. However, industrial demand in these markets remains very weak and growing headwinds –...

10th May 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 24)

A combination of a further rise in property yields and fall in alternative asset yields drove an improvement in property valuations in Q1. The more recent rise in risk-free rates implies that...

10th May 2024 · 0 mins read