Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Returns to converge further ahead The economic recovery and strong investor demand are supporting the property market upturn in Scandinavia and Switzerland. However, we expect 2021 to mark the peak for returns in most markets, except... 23rd September 2021 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Existing home sales dropped back in August as booming house prices and a lack of affordable inventory shut out first-time buyers. A small recovery in home purchase mortgage demand suggests sales may... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Most developers are not on the brink of default With a couple of exceptions, most major developers are in a much stronger financial position than Evergrande and should be able to weather a temporary spike in their borrowing costs amid contagion... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Where might markets be wrong about Evergrande? If Evergrande were to cause a financial or economic shock it would either be because policymakers failed to contain financial contagion or because the company’s collapse precipitated a much bigger... 22nd September 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update LPR cuts appear imminent Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold for a 17th consecutive month today. But with the economy losing steam and concerns around the property sector growing, we think policy rate cuts... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) A boom in multifamily construction has supported housing starts in recent months, with multifamily building permits rising to a 31-year high. On the single-family side, homebuilders have reported... 21st September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Prices to continue rising as stamp duty holiday elapses There is no doubt that demand cooled after the stamp duty discount was reduced. But a collapse in new listings has eclipsed the decline in new buyer demand, suggesting that prices will at least hold... 21st September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the rental backlog derail the retail recovery? One feature of the COVID-19 era has been persistent non-payment of rents, particularly in the retail and leisure sectors. But we don’t think this will come to a head next year once the eviction ban... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Sector fortunes to shift While the Delta variant has slowed economic activity in other parts of the world, this has not yet been the case in the euro-zone, and we are cautiously optimistic that the bloc will continue to grow... 16th September 2021 · 31 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House price boom has further to run The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the global property upturn? The most recent commercial property data have been surprisingly upbeat and have raised the possibility that the recovery could be stronger than expected. But we think investors may have run ahead of... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
