Europe Commercial Property Update What’s in store for retail this year? An expected improvement in spending is encouraging for prime high streets this year. Nevertheless, with a growing share of retail turnover made online and city-based retail more vulnerable to remote... 10th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Returns to cool significantly in 2022 The performance of commercial property exceeded expectations in 2021, with a particularly strong contribution from the industrial sector. But we don’t think that this momentum will last into this year... 7th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The construction PMI declined last month to end the year on a negative note, more than erasing the gain made in November. Despite tentative signs that they are starting to ease, we expect labour and... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) Another substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in December ensured that the lender agreed with Nationwide that the rise in house prices over the 2021 calendar year was the strongest for at... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Key calls for US commercial real estate in 2022 The US economy is set to slow this year as elevated inflation and higher interest rates squeeze spending. Nevertheless, at the all-property level, we expect rental growth of around 3% y/y and NOI... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK house price growth set for a year of two halves Strong demand will ensure that house prices maintain their momentum in the first half of the year. But rising mortgage rates will weigh on demand further out, causing prices to cool. 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Material shortages hit housing completions Shortages of materials and labour over the past year have not stopped builders from starting a lot more single-family homes. But they do appear to have prevented them from finishing them. That implies... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for European property in 2022 We don’t expect slower near-term economic growth to derail the property upturn in 2022. Rather, we think that continued falls in property yields and a rebound in all-property rents will support... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lessons from 2021 2021 proved a challenging year to forecast commercial property markets. Indeed, we underestimated the speed and size of the bounce back in performance, albeit by less than the consensus. But there are... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which predictions did we get right in 2021? While office performance surprised on the upside and we could have been much bolder in our forecast for industrial yield falls, our other forecasts for 2021 proved to be broadly correct. 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) After a brief dip due to concerns over the Omicron variant, both the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate have since resumed their upward trends, with the latter rising to a nine-month... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) Mortgage approvals stabilised in November, consistent with other evidence that demand remained robust after the stamp duty holiday ended. Even though approvals have softened to a similar level to 2019... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Declines in lending for both standing property and new developments resulted in total net lending moving back into negative territory in November. The outlook is for credit conditions to remain tight... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) The easing in house price growth in December will continue in 2022. And we expect further tightening in lending standards and rises in interest rates to cause house prices to fall in 2023. 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No Christmas cheer for shopping centres The recent sale of a 25% share of the Bluewater shopping centre has provided further evidence of the slump in retail values. And while there are signs that the worst of the correction may now be over... 24th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q4 2021) Our stronger national office forecast this quarter mean upgrades to all six major markets. The largest of those uplifts is in Boston, which has seen a sharp rise up the rankings and where we expect... 23rd December 2021 · 15 mins read
