UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May.) The drop in mortgage approvals in April provided early evidence that interest rate increases are starting to hurt activity. As we expect the rises in both policy and mortgage rates to continue apace... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand house prices to fall by 20% House prices in New Zealand are tumbling and all signs point to a further deterioration in the months ahead. On that basis, we are revising up our forecast for the peak to trough decline in prices... 30th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Survey indicates that the outlook for this year is stronger than expected three months ago, though after 2022 forecasts were more pessimistic. Our view remains more downbeat... 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do recession risks threaten euro-zone rental growth? The risks of a recession in the euro-zone have risen. While we think a contraction will be narrowly avoided, this will remain a concern for property investors already facing the prospect of higher... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the house price consensus still so bullish? The consensus among professional forecasters is that house price growth will slow but remain positive over the coming years, as a robust jobs market prevents forced sales. But even in the absence of... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update NYC apartment rental growth will cool rapidly Rental growth in NYC reached 22% y/y in Q1 2022, one of the fastest rates in the country. But we expect growth to cool rapidly from here and underperform other cities. The past surge in rents largely... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales dropped sharply to a two-year low in April. But while rising mortgage rates are weighing on sales, the drop looks large given the fall in mortgage applications seen so far and may be... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Metro upturn continues, but capital growth set to slow The metro level data confirmed another strong quarter for commercial real estate in Q1, though with the usual wide range of performance across sectors and cities. For offices, rents in the larger... 24th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Value gains set to slow The recovery continued in the Scandinavian and Swiss economies and their property markets in Q1. It was a record first quarter for investment in Scandinavia. And annual capital value growth was robust... 24th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Housing downturn could force earlier rate cuts House prices are starting to fall across Australia earlier than we had anticipated. While we still expect the RBA to hike rates until early-2023, the experience from previous housing downturns points... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Another punchy quarter, but capital growth set to slow Setting aside the drag from net exports on GDP growth, Q1 was another strong quarter for both the domestic economy and commercial real estate markets, highlighted by a record first quarter for... 20th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still rising, as housing slumps The Bank of Canada will have eyed this week’s data releases and market moves with some trepidation. The further acceleration in core CPI inflation in April means the Bank is all but guaranteed to push... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Interest rate rises hasten property slowdown The worsening monetary outlook is expected to weigh on property performance. With inflation set to peak at 10% y/y that will force interest rate to 3.0% next year. This will reverse the recent... 20th May 2022 · 26 mins read
China Economics Update A helping hand for the housing market Today’s reduction to the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) should help drive a revival in housing sales, which have gone from bad to worse recently. But the lack of any reduction to the one-year LPR... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage debt service ratio to remain low The surge in mortgage rates has led to a sharp deterioration in home affordability. But that doesn’t mean the mortgage debt service ratio, the share of disposable income spent on mortgage payments... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales fell once again in April, although for now they remain above their pre-COVID-19 level. But, with mortgage rates set to stay high and credit conditions unlikely to loosen... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
