US Commercial Property Update Calling the top for US commercial real estate Indicators that include a recently released investor sentiment survey and a sharp fall in REIT prices since the start of the year support our updated view that capital values will go into reverse in... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update The anatomy of a housing market downturn Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Student accommodation rent growth to stay solid Student enrolment remained robust during the last couple of years and is likely to continue growing strongly over the next decade. But supply of purpose-built beds has grown less rapidly and the... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rising interest rates to speed up property correction The weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates are expected to weigh on property performance. With valuations under increasing pressure from sharply rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2022 · 31 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs of a slowdown emerging Annual all-property rental growth reached a five-year high in May, while returns rose to levels last seen in mid-1994. But signs of a slowdown also emerged, especially in the red-hot industrial sector... 22nd June 2022 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook All-property returns to fall to zero next year as values slide The dramatic shift in the interest rate environment over the first half of the year means that we have brought forward (and increased) our forecasts for yield rises. Property valuations now look as... 21st June 2022 · 24 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Surging mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in May to their lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns two years ago. And with mortgage rates set to rise to 6.5% by... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in mortgage rates makes house price falls likely We have previously argued that a mortgage rate of above 6% represents the threshold at which house price falls become likely. With rates recently rising above that level, we are therefore revising... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates begin to take their toll The rise in mortgage rates from a low of 1.5% last November to 1.8% in April is beginning to weigh on home purchase demand, with the new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS survey dropping into... 20th June 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will Manchester office rental growth outperform again? After a more severe downturn in 2020, Manchester office rental growth has caught up with other regional cities in recent quarters. While employment growth and occupier activity may remain fairly weak... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Housing starts in May recorded their largest month-on-month decline since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. A fall in housing demand due to higher mortgage rates is occurring at the same time as... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Existing home sales set for a sharper fall Leading indicators are pointing to a large fall in existing home sales. For example, the recent sharp decline in the NAR buyer traffic balance is consistent with a fall in sales to 4.5m annualised... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 22) The detailed quarterly mortgage lending data from the Bank of England confirmed that the squeeze on lenders margins intensified at the start of the year, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
