UK Commercial Property Update Recession to weigh on the property outlook The latest revisions to our UK economic view indicate that a recession is now unavoidable. This will weigh on commercial property performance into next year, but the dip is expected to be fairly mild... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The further decline in home sales in June and the record monthly fall in house prices did little to affect construction activity, with housing starts once again outperforming expectations last month... 19th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts fell by a sizeable 8.1% m/m in June, following a 9.0% m/m drop in May. With rising mortgage rates continuing to weigh on demand, homebuilder confidence plummeted in July... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings expectations, the Fed and the S&P 500 Optimistic expectations for US corporate earnings over the next couple of years, coupled with a still-hawkish Fed, mean we think the S&P 500 will stay under pressure for a while. 18th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jun.) CRE lending growth was again strong in June, but outside of the multifamily sector, there are signs the rate of growth may have peaked. And with investment transactions slowing, we expect a... 18th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lisbon industrial yields near a turning point Despite the Q1 surge in investment activity, we think a weak rental outlook and stretched valuations will deter a sustained increase in investment, limiting the scope for further falls in prime... 18th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s shock tactics carry significant risks The Bank of Canada justified its 100 bp interest rate hike on the basis that front-loading hikes has historically raised the chance of a “soft landing”. With the pace of house price declines already... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Stronger signs that office sector distress will grow The large-scale deterioration in office NOIs that we predicted would occur by the end of 2025 appears, on the face of it, to be some way off. But offices are the only sector seeing rising delinquency... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity contracts even as rates stabilise The upward trend in mortgage rates took a breather over the past month, but that didn’t provide much of a boost to housing market activity. Existing home sales have fallen for four months in a row... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market jitters, demographic decline Homebuyers across China are banding together to pause mortgage payments in response to construction delays on presold apartments. For now these boycotts are small in scale. But they could become more... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2022) The Q2 credit conditions survey shows that lenders will not loosen credit conditions to keep the house price boom going like they did in 2004-2007. Indeed, despite the fact demand is expected to slump... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) There was an unmistakeable cooling in the housing market in June as the new buyer enquiries balance slipped further into negative territory. With mortgage rates continuing to rise and the economy on... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail warehouses to remain aisle of choice Structural changes to how we live, work and shop have supported retail warehouse rents over the last couple of years relative to other retail sub-sectors. We expect this outperformance will continue... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak euro unlikely to push overseas investment higher We doubt the fall in the euro will lead to a material increase in overseas investment this year. Rather, we think investor demand will be underpinned by the euro-zone’s economic and property... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern metros to outperform Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this... 12th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
