Canada Economics Update Fall in house prices to contribute to lower CPI inflation The 10% fall in house prices that we expect over the next 12 months will also help to pull down CPI inflation, via its impact on shelter costs. Admittedly, shelter inflation is unlikely to decline... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in the next few... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Homeworking to remain key to city retail performance One of the unforeseen consequences of the homeworking revolution is its negative impact on city centre retail footfall. The evidence suggests that in urban centres there is a link between higher... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices heading for a fall If we are right that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates to 3.00% to stamp out inflation then we are on the cusp of the fastest increase in mortgage rates since the late 1980s. That... 13th May 2022 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever Over our five-year forecast, we expect in-migration to the South will see apartment rents there outgrow the national average. But further ahead, the greater ability of supply to respond in the South... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th May 2022 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) The housing market shrugged off the effects of rising mortgage rates and the cost-of-living crisis in April as intense competition between buyers bid up prices further. However, with mortgage rates... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial demand returning to West Coast ports Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach forced some container ships to reroute to the less busy ports of the Gulf Coast, supporting industrial occupier demand in those markets. But we... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian capital values to take a hit Italian prime property values continued to make solid gains in Q1. However, with the economic outlook downgraded and larger increases in property yields expected over the next couple of years, capital... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rate rise hits housing market activity The rise in mortgage rates, to a 12-year high in mid-April, is now starting to weigh on housing market activity, with new and existing home sales falling back over the past couple of months. With... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen to post-GFC low Commercial property valuations worsened further in Q1 and now look overvalued. The spread between property and gilt yields narrowed to its lowest level post-GFC, but still has some distance to fall to... 10th May 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Forecast downgrades, but the sky is not about to fall Rises in short-and-long interest rates and the likelihood of further increases over the next 12 months pose a threat to real estate prices. While some have suggested that this will not derail market... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Cracks in housing market risk turning into chasms The slump in home sales in April, combined with the unexpected fall in hours worked, point to downside risks to GDP last month. While hours worked are set to rebound in May, there is likely to be much... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Apr.) The construction PMI for April showed that building activity remained solid, but that the pace of growth has slowed. An easing in new orders growth also hints at a further slowdown ahead, as the... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) In contrast to Nationwide’s measure of house price inflation, there was no sign of house price growth slowing in the Halifax figures for April. But with mortgage rates only just starting to climb to... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
