UK Housing Market Update A full suite of revised UK Housing forecasts Its widely accepted that the jump in mortgage rates from 1.5% last autumn to 6% means that a significant fall in house prices is now inevitable. In this Update we set out how we came to our forecast... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger fall in euro-zone capital values on the cards Recent revisions to our euro-zone interest rate and bond yield view suggest there is upside risk to our forecasts for prime commercial property yields. With the deteriorating economic outlook also set... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The 0.1% monthly fall in the Halifax house price index in September echoed the message from Nationwide earlier this week that house prices have now stalled. Given the sharp rise in mortgage rates over... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to fall by 8% Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates, a weaker economy and prices falling earlier than expected, we have cut our forecast and now expect a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of 8%, down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep.) The surprise increase in the construction PMI reflected an improvement on the supply side, as easing demand cut delivery times and improved contractor availability. But a slowing economy and rising... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Charlotte office rental growth to outpace US average We think the Charlotte office market will continue to outperform the US average, as firms capitalise on the city’s affordability and position as a prominent financial district. As such, even though... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The sixth consecutive month of falling home purchase activity in September was driven by a sharp rise in mortgage rates to 6.75% at the end of the month. With a significant easing in credit conditions... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Market uncertainty pushes up mortgage rates An upward revision to our 10-year Treasury yield forecast and a widening in spreads have led us to upgrade our mortgage rate forecasts. We now expect the 30-year fixed rate will stay close to 6.5% for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise, but banks will survive The scale of the increase in mortgage rates means that a large rise in mortgage arrears and repossessions is probably unavoidable. But substantial capital buffers mean lenders will be able to absorb... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker demand to limit Paris office rent growth Falls in Paris Centre West vacancy are expected to support a further pick-up in prime office rents in the second half of the year. But this will be short-lived, with the deteriorating outlook for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property capital values set to fall by 15% Looser-than-expected fiscal policy following the mini-Budget means we now expect Bank Rate and gilt yields to be higher. All else equal, that would push the spread between the 10-year yield and all... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The surprise jump in mortgage approvals in August probably reflected a rush to lock in mortgage offers as interest rates surged. There is a possibility that could be repeated next month, but... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Chinese tourism drought will add to luxury retail woes In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Europe Commercial Property Update to clients of our UK Commercial Property Service. With no end in sight to China’s zero-COVID policy, the... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) The stall in house prices in September was little surprise given the growing downward pressure on demand from rising mortgage rates. We suspect that, despite the reduction in stamp duty announced last... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian investment to drop back in the coming quarters While the market reaction to the Italian election was muted, we think that the worsening economic outlook and concerns about debt sustainability will result in increased risk aversion toward Italian... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
