UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) The substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in June was surprising given the softening in the Nationwide figures in the same month, and the deterioration in leading indicators of housing... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields could rise more quickly than expected Our updated yield model points to a quicker rise in property yields than our forecast suggests. While we still expect the correction to be mild, not least because of the lower share of property debt... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A more forceful 75 bp hike The recent acceleration in wage growth and rise in long-run inflation expectations leave little doubt that, despite the drop back in commodity prices, the Bank of Canada will follow through with a... 6th July 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for home purchase saw a slight recovery over the course of June as mortgage interest rates eased back. But demand remains depressed compared to its pre-COVID-19 level and a... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.) The third consecutive monthly fall in the construction PMI suggests that that growth in development activity is slowing. The near-term outlook has also deteriorated, with growth in new orders easing... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook In light of the deterioration in the economic environment, our office metro forecasts have been downgraded across the board. Those downgrades are driven by a substantial shift in our yield view, which... 1st July 2022 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Looser mortgage standards won’t keep the party going In contrast to the mid-2000s, there seems little chance of a significant loosening in mortgage lending standards in response to higher interest rates today. Traditional banks have not forgotten the... 1st July 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May.) Lending activity in the commercial property sector cooled in May, consistent with the weaker investment data seen in recent months. Looking ahead, we expect rising interest rates and high property... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals remained relatively weak in May supporting our view that higher interest rates are now starting to curb activity. As mortgage rates are set to rise further over the next year, this... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Banks given more room to lend, housing vouchers Bank lending has been weak recently but that could soon change. Quantitative controls on loans were loosened further in Q2, giving banks room to ramp up lending as credit demand rebounds following... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn to weigh on activity The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The monthly decline in house prices in June was the largest since 2019 but is unlikely to be the sharpest decline in the current downturn. We think house prices will eventually fall by 15% from their... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity to fall as economic realities bite After a solid start to the year, investment activity showed signs of cooling during the second quarter. We think that stretched valuations, an increasingly negative financing gap and economic... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Property yields to move higher Weaker economic activity and higher interest rates as a consequence of the war in Ukraine will weigh on property performance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Shifts in investor sentiment and a... 30th June 2022 · 18 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Mounting growth concerns leave few places to hide The period since the publication of our last Asset Allocation Chart Book on 31 st May has brought yet more pain for investors. Between then and 28 th June, the returns from all the headline indices... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
