US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2022) NCREIF total returns fell back again in Q2, dropping to 3.2% q/q from their end-2021 peak of over 6%, as higher interest rates and weaker growth hit property performance. We expect the remainder of... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Rents to grow at twice their 2010s rate this decade Although less widely reported than the house price boom, rents have been setting records too. The 11% y/y rise in the Zoopla rents index in Q1 was the fastest since the series began in 2006. That... 26th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily Central banks may yet put more upward pressure on bond yields We expect elevated inflation to keep developed market (DM) central banks hiking rates aggressively this year, even as economies slow sharply, in some cases falling into recession. Accordingly, we... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker consumer outlook to delay Spanish retail rally A rebound in tourism will cushion some of the blow to Spanish prime retail demand caused by falling real incomes this year. But once inflation eventually eases, we expect rent growth to outperform... 25th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What if homebuilding doesn’t slump? Our view that GDP growth will slow below potential next year assumes one of the sharpest falls in dwellings investment in Australia’s modern history. However, this Update explains why dwellings... 25th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Yield compression at an end as recession looms With inflation now set to rise to 12% by October, interest rates on the rise and the economy on the brink of recession, the 21-month streak of yield compression is at an end. Coupled with subdued... 22nd July 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation finally peaks CPI inflation has finally peaked but this will not be enough to prevent further large interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, especially as there is little evidence yet that the weakening housing... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office conversions most likely in high land cost metros The contrast between the strong performance of the apartment sector and the weak performance of offices in the last two years has made office-to-residential conversions more viable, but the numbers... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing strains, migrant job losses Regulators have called on banks to step up lending to developers. But with banks becoming more cautious about issuing mortgages in the face of mortgage boycotts and local governments tightening... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales dropped again in June, taking them to below their pre-COVID peak. With affordability looking as stretched as it was during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), home buyer sentiment... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tightening credit conditions point to higher yields The Q2 ECB bank lending survey showed a tightening in credit standards for commercial property lending in the first half of the year, with expectations for a further squeeze in H2. With the cost of... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Recession to weigh on the property outlook The latest revisions to our UK economic view indicate that a recession is now unavoidable. This will weigh on commercial property performance into next year, but the dip is expected to be fairly mild... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The further decline in home sales in June and the record monthly fall in house prices did little to affect construction activity, with housing starts once again outperforming expectations last month... 19th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts fell by a sizeable 8.1% m/m in June, following a 9.0% m/m drop in May. With rising mortgage rates continuing to weigh on demand, homebuilder confidence plummeted in July... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings expectations, the Fed and the S&P 500 Optimistic expectations for US corporate earnings over the next couple of years, coupled with a still-hawkish Fed, mean we think the S&P 500 will stay under pressure for a while. 18th July 2022 · 5 mins read
