UK Housing Market Update 2023 will see a difficult adjustment to higher rates Mortgage rates have probably now peaked, but they remain at a level that makes further steep falls in house prices and a slump in housing market activity inevitable this year. If anything, the hard... 9th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Increasing doubt over Yield Curve Control’s longevity In less than two months, we should know who will replace Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko, whose term ends on 8th April. Whoever replaces him will be under increasing pressure from the... 9th January 2023 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Six key calls for US commercial real estate in 2023 Our key calls for 2023 highlight major shifts in the outlook for real estate. We expect all-property total returns to be negative for the first time since 2009. At a sector level, we expect retail to... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US Housing Market Calls for 2023 While we expect mortgage rates will fall to 5.75% by end-2023, affordability will remain stretched. Alongside a weakening economy and falling house prices that will weigh on housing market activity... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The key developments to look out for in 2023 The property repricing in response to higher interest rates has not yet run its course. Coupled with a recession-driven slowdown in rent growth, this means 2023 is shaping up to be another bleak year... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The headline CIPS construction index fell below 50 in December, indicating a contraction in activity, as the recession hit demand and developers’ concerns about capital values increased. With both... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Faster adjustment in prime values to rising rates so far The latest MSCI data show that prime property values underperformed the wider market last year. But with the rest of the market more vulnerable to the economic recession and as MSCI values catch up... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Net lending to property accelerated in November to an 11-month high. But given the worsening economic and property outlook we expect it will soon go into reverse. Indeed, investment activity is now... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The impact of the surge in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget on 23rd September was realised in November as mortgage approvals collapsed. The modest drop back in fixed mortgage rates since... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Central London leads housing market slowdown London house prices are likely to continue to underperform even if the shift in buyer demand away from the capital due to remote working ends. More stretched house prices in the capital prior to the... 3rd January 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Atlanta, Dallas top the rankings; NYC, SF lose out Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Equities may take longer to turn a corner than bonds A renewed pullback in global equity markets and rise in bond yields in December is set to cap off a historically poor year for returns from both “risky” and “safe” asset classes. In fact, once the... 22nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper lira correction risks stuffing Turkey rent gains Although prime property in Turkey saw strong rental gains in 2022, a slowing economy looks set to weigh on occupier demand and cause rent growth to decelerate next year. Meanwhile, the risk of a... 22nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
