Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rent outlook weak despite recent better news Since the end of last year, developments have been more positive in the retail sector. However, we still think 2023 will be a difficult year. The weak outlook for consumer spending and more spending... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we nearing a trough for Scandinavian investment? Near term economic headwinds suggest the slowdown in investment activity in Scandinavia will continue in 2023. However, with policy rates near a peak, and improving economic activity and falling bond... 23rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment set for weak H1 before picking up in late-2023 We expect the slowdown in investment activity in the second half of 2022 to persist into the first half of 2023. But we think transactions will begin to recover later this year once interest rates... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Single-family housing starts surprised on the upside in December. But it is too soon to call the bottom of the market. Indeed, another substantial fall in permits means we think starts are set to... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2022) The Q4 2022 Credit Conditions Survey shows that while lenders tightened lending criteria in the aftermath of the “mini” budget, the main constraint on lending volumes was a collapse in demand due to... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update REIT pricing points to further fall in capital values Movements in REIT pricing provide a good indication of where property capital values are heading. And the latest data are consistent with our expectation that all-property values will see a peak-to... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office downturn underway Office markets started to lose momentum at the end of last year and the expected weakness in employment this year suggests the slowdown will continue. That said, we think prime rents will avoid falls... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) On the surface, net lending to real estate in December looks to have reached its highest since October 2008. However, this apparent spike in lending was almost entirely due to the addition of a... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Housing downturns starting to take toll on economies Housing downturns are well underway in many countries and house prices and activity generally have further to fall. Construction activity is already suffering as a result. While it is hard to detect... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch offices unlikely to fall over EPC cliff-edge The recent commencement of stricter office EPC legislation in the Netherlands has raised concerns that Dutch office valuations may be on the edge of a regulatory precipice, given the large proportion... 13th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of a trough in housing demand There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise... 12th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS Construction Survey showed the first contraction in workloads since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2020. Weakening demand and rising financing costs are cutting profits and... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Nashville tops updated ranking of remote worker metros Our updated remote worker metro ranking shows some important changes since the end of the pandemic, though the winners remain in the South. Nashville tops the table, having climbed seven places... 11th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher interest costs pose downside risks to values Real estate equity prices pointed to around a 10% fall in euro-zone all-property capital values in 2022 and we expect a similar size fall this year. But while the latest REIT data show landlords were... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property faces a tough year After a stellar first six months, rising interest rates and a slowing economy brought commercial property returns crashing down in the second half of 2022. All-property total returns are therefore set... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
