Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November

The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data...

11th October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets

Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels...

10th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Retail ‘flight to quality’ limited to shopping centres

In contrast to offices, there is less evidence of a ‘flight to quality’ in the overall retail sector. Shopping centres are the exception, where the spread between both prime and non-prime yields, and...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2024)

Surge in supply ahead of Budget may temporarily dampen prices A leap in the number of homes being put up for sale in September, perhaps due to fears of second-homes and rented properties being subject...

10th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

What could a Trump win mean for commercial real estate?

On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway...

7th October 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The third consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in September provides further evidence that the falls in mortgage rates are supporting demand and pushing up house prices.

7th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Introducing our House Price Leading Index

Our new House Price Leading Index combines several leading indicators that capture the balance of supply and demand in Australia’s housing market and suggests that house price growth will continue to...

7th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Housing still struggling

Activity in the housing market and broader economy have been struggling for momentum and give little indication that excess supply is dissipating, suggesting that there is still a strong case for a...

4th October 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded to a 2½ year high of 57.2 in September as the prospect of lower interest rates, rising capital values and a government committed to boosting home...

4th October 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply

The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Mall divergence to persist as luxury boosts top-tier assets

While we have been talking up the prospects for retail, malls remain the underperforming subsector in our forecasts. But that covers a wide range of likely performance. Indeed, as luxury retailers...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Out-of-town retail will continue to beat the street

Non-high street retail subsectors have seen a stronger rental recovery from post-pandemic lows than high street shops. And we think this outperformance will continue given tighter availability and...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

China stimulus: your questions answered

China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2024)

The impact of lower mortgage rates was finally evident in mortgage applications in September, with applications for home purchase rebounding to a three-month high. With mortgage rates falling to...

2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read