UK Commercial Property Update Flight to quality limited to offices The recent fall in commercial property values has not driven a flight to quality in either the retail or industrial sectors. But there has been a sharp rise in the office non-prime/prime spread, as... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (May 23) Net lending to commercial property remained in positive territory in May at £621m. And over the past three months, lending has totalled £2.3bn, the highest figure since June 2020. Commercial property... 29th June 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Higher rates make further house price falls inevitable Higher mortgage rates have not only priced many buyers out of the market altogether, but also reduced the size of mortgage those still able to buy can take out. The latest surge in mortgage rates to... 28th June 2023 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (May.) Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over 1... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.) House prices rose in April by the fastest pace in close to a year, reflecting constraints to supply as high mortgage rates have discouraged existing homeowners from moving. Although prices have shown... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Outlook stabilises, but longer term questions remain After several disruptive quarters, we are making few changes to our near-term euro-zone real estate forecasts. Nonetheless, a higher profile for 10-year rates has led us to push back yield reductions... 26th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial well-placed to weather recession With interest rates now set to be higher for longer, we are sticking with our view the UK will enter a recession later this year. That will hit occupier demand across all property sectors, but... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss prime offices to trail the rest of Europe Swiss offices have already seen the second sharpest price correction across the major European markets. And with stretched valuations set to face renewed pressure from rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office values unlikely to regain their peaks even by 2040 The reduction in office demand due to remote work will cause a hit to net operating incomes on a par with, or worse than, that experienced by malls over the last six years. And in line with the... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (May.) As expected, existing home sales remained relatively unchanged in May, rising by +0.2% m/m to 4,300,000 annualised. Despite this marginal rise, a decline in mortgage applications for home purchase in... 22nd June 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What will be the damage from 6% mortgage rates? A return to mortgage rates of around 6% for the first time since 2007 guarantees a renewed slump in mortgage lending and a further leg down in house prices. Were mortgage rates to be sustained at that... 20th June 2023 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Update Recovery in sentiment will be a false dawn At face value, the recent improvement in market sentiment indicators supports the view that the worst may be past for housing. But looking deeper, we think this largely reflects supply-side... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a reckoning for European offices? The latest MSCI data indicate that values in western European office markets have held up better since the start of the pandemic when compared with the US and UK. But given these cities face similar... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
