US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct) The second consecutive monthly decline in outstanding commercial real estate loan balances held by US banks in October means the data are starting to reflect the pullback in real estate lending that... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024-27 completions to be below pre-pandemic levels With vacancy set to stay elevated, development finance remaining expensive, and values to continue falling next year, we expect construction starts will be weak in all sectors over the next 12 months... 10th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update WeWork collapse adds to office concerns The bankruptcy of WeWork in the US was a predictable end to a long-running saga. Its effects on office markets will not be systemic, but they will reinforce existing weaknesses and pile more bad news... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 23) The past prices balance remained deeply negative in October contradicting the 1% m/m increases in house prices recorded by both Halifax and Nationwide. But a recovery in buyer enquiries suggests the... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 23) A small rise in property yields in Q3 was not enough to offset a surge in alternative asset yields, particularly the 10-year gilt, and as a result valuations worsened. 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2023) After their weakest month in 28 years, there were signs that mortgage applications for home purchase bottomed out at the end of October. Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped 9.1% m/m across... 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European banks weathering CRE crash Despite the steepest crash in commercial property values on record, the credit risk and asset quality of European banks’ commercial real estate lending is holding up well. Further declines in values... 8th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Further sharp drop in house prices unlikely The rise in house prices in October was a challenge to our long-held view that high borrowing costs will cause them to drop further. The resilience of prices in part reflects longer mortgage terms... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Oct. 23) The increase in the Halifax house price index in October confirmed that house prices are rising, suggesting that the high cost of borrowing alone is not sufficient to trigger the leg down we predicted... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) The uptick in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.0 in September to 45.6 in October still left it below the 50 “no-change” mark. But despite an improvement in both the commercial activity and... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment drop-in: Answers to client questions This week we held a drop-in on the prospects for commercial property investment in the UK and Europe. This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the discussion. 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update More pain to come for first-time buyers The rise in the US homeownership rate has stalled, driven by a drop in the proportion of under-35s that own their home. That’s down to higher mortgage rates reducing the number of first-time buyers... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Belgian industrial rents to lead the euro-zone We expect industrial rents in Belgium to outperform the rest of the euro-zone on the back of a brighter economic outlook, very tight supply and a larger rise in e-commerce. We forecast annual average... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
