Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update The mixed recession signals from US HY bonds & CMBS The stark and unusual contrast between falling credit spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds and rising ones of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US suggests... 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest office rental surge could have further to run Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Is there real evidence of an office 'flight to quality'? The data show a small, but limited, divergence in performance between overall class A and classes B and C office space. But that differential appears to have been driven by newly-built " trophy" space... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 23) A small rise in property yields in Q2 was not enough to offset a surge in alternative asset yields, particularly the 10-year gilt, and as a result valuations worsened. 9th August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the Olympics boost Paris prime retail rents? While Paris rents have been flat for some time, there are signs that the post-pandemic rebound in tourism is starting to boost high street luxury retail. And the upcoming Paris Olympics in 2024 will... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (July 2023) With mortgage rates rising to around 6% in July, it was no surprise that the slide in the Halifax house price index continued. Although there might be a modest fall in mortgage rates in the near term... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Renewed falls in activity and house prices imminent Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% for the next 12 months. That will... 4th August 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul 23) The headline CIPS construction PMI resumed its upward trend in July, with the rise to 51.7 more than reversing the drop into contractionary territory in June. 4th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we still expect 15% falls in industrial and apartment values Despite capital value falls of 7% and 9% to-date for industrial and apartments respectively, we are forecasting around 15% further value declines as cap rates rise. But the falls in appraisal-based... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s property sector is increasingly state-led The property downturn has left state-owned developers the dominant players in a previously privately-led sector. The state is likely to continue playing a larger role as consolidation continues around... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Addressing key questions from our offices Drop-In We recently held a Drop-in titled “Office Sector Armageddon – Who gets hit hardest?”, which you can view on-demand here. This Update addresses some of the specific European questions we received... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) June’s rebound in mortgage applications for home purchase was short-lived as total applications fell by 1.7% in July. This pushed applications back down toward 30-year lows and was probably prompted... 2nd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices drop-in: Answers to client questions Last week, we held a Drop-In on the future of office property. This Update provides answers for a variety of questions from a UK perspective that emerged from the discussion. 2nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
