UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2024)

October’s 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices was a bit weaker than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) and suggests that the recent falls in mortgage rates may be providing...

1st November 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)

Australia’s housing rally continued to lose steam in October. However, with the RBA set to cut interest rates from early-2025, there are good reasons not to be too bearish on the outlook for house...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Budget not a game-changer for the housing market

The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Q3 RICS survey suggests market has bottomed

The Q3 RICS commercial property survey suggests a recovery is on its way with improvements in both the occupier and investment market headline balances and the majority of respondents believing the...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery?

We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Q3 RICS: Weak occupier demand a risk to recovery

The latest RICS survey showed that investor sentiment continued to improve in Europe in Q3, adding to the growing evidence that the market has bottomed. However, declines in reported occupier demand...

31st October 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery

The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2024)

A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

French residential property returns to lag the pack

Softer rental prospects, less scope for yields to fall and lower income returns look set to weigh on French residential property returns compared to Germany, the UK and the US in the coming years.

29th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Sep. 24)

Net lending to property totalled £1.33bn in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month.

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2024)

Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial...

29th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks

The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less...

28th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The increase in new home sales in September was probably supported by the fall in mortgage rates last month. Rates have rebounded since then, however, which lends support to our view that new home...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 24)

Capital values are now recovering and, notwithstanding a recent rise in interest rates, will continue to do so. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read