US Commercial Property Focus

Silver tsunami to boost senior housing

The recent downturn in US commercial property has piqued investor interest in alternatives as they look to diversify. With an aging population, senior housing has a clear long run structural demand...

18th November 2024 · 14 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Rising household size will weigh on house prices

A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low...

18th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery

While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains

Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Consensus still expect office rent slowdown, CE more upbeat

The strength of prime office rent growth in Europe in recent years has surprised forecasters, however there is broad agreement that rental growth will slow next year. We share that view, but are less...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024)

October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024)

The sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield in Q3 meant marked improvement in our property valuation scores. That left all-property looking “fairly valued” for the first time since the end of 2021...

11th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Risks to European hotel resurgence

A strong recovery in occupancy and operating performance following the pandemic has helped European hotels to outperform other sectors on average since 2022. However, this rebound is now fading and...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 24)

Valuations improved in Q3 as alternative asset yields fell back. But since then, the combined impact of the Budget and US election has more than reversed the decline in the 10-year gilt yield seen...

7th November 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2024)

October’s 0.2% m/m rise in Halifax house prices suggests that the recent momentum in house prices has a bit further to run. And while the recent rises in swap rates suggest mortgage rates will soon...

7th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 24)

Lower borrowing costs should breathe some much-needed life into the market next year, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate 'lock-in' will continue to hold back activity...

6th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024)

Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct. 24)

After a strong September the headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back to 54.3 in October, although that still points to an expansion of construction activity.

6th November 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read