UK Housing Market Update

Are there enough workers to build 300,000 homes a year?

Even if the government’s easing of planning rules were to mean that at least 300,000 new home approvals in England were granted a year, the number of construction workers would need to rise...

26th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The large fall in new home sales in October was to be expected given the disruption from hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the rise in mortgage rates last month. While sales should rebound this...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 24)

All-property values are down 18% from their mid-2022 peaks. And with appraisal-based cap rates still set to tick higher, we expect further small falls in values. That should take the peak-to-trough...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Where are the residential construction layoffs?

Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home...

25th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024)

Commercial property valuations improved in all sectors in Q3 as bond yields fell, with offices and retail moving into fair value territory. However, the rise in government bond yields so far in Q4...

25th November 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Budget measures to weaken property recovery

The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over...

22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The modest rise in existing home sales in October reflects the earlier drop in mortgage rates over the summer and is unlikely to be repeated, as borrowing costs have since rebounded to 7%.

21st November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024)

Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values...

21st November 2024 · 0 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

21st November 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Which retail cities have performed best?

Retail has suffered some severe blows over the last decade, but the nadir for the sector seems to have passed and for some time we have been talking about recovery ahead, albeit a weak one. In this...

20th November 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still...

20th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Investment to pick up but remain sluggish in 2025

The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are...

20th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates appear to be finally sparking a recovery in the housing market, with home sales soaring to a two-and-a-half-year high last month and the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to...

19th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Larger rate cuts increase the scope for property yield falls

The larger and faster pace of ECB rate cuts we now expect means euro-zone government bond yields are likely to be lower in the coming years than previously forecast. This is positive for property...

19th November 2024 · 3 mins read