US Commercial Property Focus

Time to go shopping for retail assets

Retail real estate has faced a tough period, buffeted by the rise of e-commerce, extensive oversupply and the impacts of the pandemic on in-store shopping. But we think the sector is well down the...

20th August 2024 · 21 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means...

20th August 2024 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Warning signs for business investment

The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non...

16th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2024)

Interest rate cuts have so far failed to stimulate the housing market, although the sharper drop in borrowing costs this month will lend more support. Regional divergences are growing, with Toronto...

16th August 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Not a balance sheet recession, yet

Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jul. 2024)

The slump in both housing starts and building permits in July, to the lowest levels since the epoch of the pandemic, only partly reflects the temporary impact of Hurricane Beryl. Accordingly, even...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Focus

How to fix China’s property destocking scheme

The property support measures included in yesterday’s stimulus announcement won’t be enough to drive a turnaround in the housing market. In a detailed analysis of the government’s property destocking...

16th August 2024 · 18 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024)

Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Update

Revising up our 2024 house price forecast

Given the revival in house prices and recent falls in mortgage rates, we are raising our Q4 2024 house price growth forecast from 1.0% y/y to 2.0%. We now think that the number of housing transactions...

15th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Data improving, but German retail prospects still weak

Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag...

15th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (August 2024)

The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths when it comes to policy setting in the near term. With the New Zealand economy in a tailspin and inflation well on its way to target, the RBNZ...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24)

While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks...

14th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

Retail investment will continue to lead the recovery

Commercial property investment is on track to hit our forecast for a rise of 20% this year, helped by a substantial rise in retail transactions. A decent rental growth outlook coupled with attractive...

14th August 2024 · 3 mins read