UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24)

Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months...

31st May 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2024)

Despite a small increase in the Nationwide house price index in May, the big picture is that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stagnate.

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Residential outperforms within a modest recovery

Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total...

30th May 2024 · 27 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (May 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany

While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom.

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to...

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2024)

The tick up in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused demand to soften. As a result, house prices are likely to tread water over the coming months. But our forecast that Bank Rate will...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK?

While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes...

28th May 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2024)

The solid 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in March suggests that competition among buyers for the limited number of second-hand homes on the market remains strong. We expect that to continue for the...

28th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

What would an end to the property crisis look like?

Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Spain logistics rent growth upgrade, but Madrid to trail

Spanish industrial rent growth beat expectations in Q1 this year, outpacing rises elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, this was mainly due to Barcelona, where we have raised our prime rent forecast...

24th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Apr. 2024)

The spike in mortgage rates to 7.3% in April caused a sizeable drop in new home sales, as buyers decided to wait for a chance of getting a lower rate. We think this will partly reverse in May as...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Apr. 2024)

The drop in existing home sales in April will be followed up by further falls in the coming months, supporting our view that the recovery in transactions we expect this year will be concentrated in...

22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read