US Commercial Property Update Life science growth will support Boston offices We expect the boost in demand for life science product will support Boston’s office market. At the same time, office-to-lab conversions will limit the impact of a relatively large development pipeline... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2020) All-property total returns strengthened in Q4, broadly as we had expected. And the data continued to point to the importance of sector selection to returns. Perhaps the real surprise was that NCREIF... 26th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hospitality re-openings key to the outlook this year Leisure and hospitality re-openings were behind the strongest job growth in the Autumn, although national data for December suggest that this could be reversed on the back of renewed lockdowns. With... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) Commercial real estate debt growth slowed in December, probably reflecting a softening in investment activity on the back of renewed lockdowns. This points to a similarly slow start to 2021 before the... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hub and spoke model not the future of offices Many commentators are arguing that firms will shift towards a “hub and spoke” model following the pandemic. But we think the arguments for this approach are not as strong as they first seem, and that... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for 2021 For 2021 we highlight five key calls. In particular we expect a year of two halves in which yields initially rise, but end 2021 close to their current levels. Retail and office rent falls will... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural changes threaten the hotel recovery The hotel sector has been hit hardest by the virus, and we expect its recovery will be slower than the other sectors. And, even when vaccines pave the way for an improvement in occupancy, structural... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov.) Commercial real estate debt growth accelerated in November. However, renewed lockdowns in many states may slow the recovery in investment activity, limiting debt growth in the next few months. 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Structural changes will keep office and retail in the doldrums While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than... 11th December 2020 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Revising the peak-to-trough price fall to just 5% Our upcoming Outlook will detail major upgrades to our capital value expectations. Rather than a total fall of around 10% at the all-property level, we now expect the cumulative decline to be just 5%. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartments, retail and the terrible Ts: Tech & Tourism Cities with a large tourism sector, such as Las Vegas and Orlando, still employ 10% fewer people than they did in February, which will hurt retail spending and apartment demand. And, while office... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Swathes of sublease space will soon hit office rents The volume of available sublease space already exceeds that seen in the last two downturns. And an average discount of 20% to landlord asking rents, rising to 30%-plus in some cities, will reduce the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) Occupier market sentiment remained at cyclical lows, but there was a small sign of improvement in the investment market. But we expect that only to be short-term respite, as the coming quarters are... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2020) All-property total returns moved positive again this quarter, as valuation downgrades reduced markedly. A lack of forced sellers has limited transaction activity and reduced observable evidence, which... 27th October 2020 · 3 mins read
