US Housing End of eviction ban won’t stop recovery in rents The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Office metro-level divergence to persist After a period of strong economic growth in H1 2021, with high inflation squeezing incomes and the spread of the Delta variant, the outlook for H2 is less positive. That said, we don’t expect this to... 18th August 2021 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are PDRs the answer to mis-matches in supply? New plans have extended Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) on commercial property, allowing swifter conversion to residential use. These have been cautiously welcomed, but, in our view, they do not... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Tentative signs of a turning point for property All-property capital values rose for the third consecutive quarter in Q2, leaving them less than 1% below their pre-virus level. The improvement was driven by a decline in all-property yields, though... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Slight worsening in property valuations On our measure, property looked slightly worse value relative to bond and equities in Q2. The worsening was due to a marked fall in property yields, driven by the industrial sector. Outside of over... 16th August 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What if we are wrong about interest rates? While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) became more hawkish at its August meeting, an increase in interest rates on the scale it expects would not undermine house prices. But more stubborn inflation... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Luxury won’t shield Paris retailers from e-commerce We expect prime retail rents in both Lyon and Paris to struggle to make up lost ground this year, and even after a return to growth next year, the pace of increases will be subdued. 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jul.) Outstanding real estate debt growth accelerated in July, supported by increases in residential, multifamily and non-farm commercial real estate debt. And with demand for loans growing on the back of... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Three recent trends we expect to last We expect several of the trends that have tentatively (re-)emerged in financial markets recently to persist. 12th August 2021 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Focus The last house price boom? The housing market is highly cyclical, and the current price boom marks the fifth episode since 1970 where real house price growth has exceeded 5% y/y. But there are good reasons to think this will... 12th August 2021 · 19 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Despite new buyer enquiries dropping back in July, house prices continued to rise as buyers competed for limited stock. 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Home sales and house prices to moderate The share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home has fallen to 39-years lows, as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and record low inventory have weighed on sentiment. But... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail yield stabilisation not a sign of a turning point Following larger-than-expected falls in Q2 and positive near-term developments, we expect prime office and industrial yields to end the year lower than previously forecast. However, we think prime... 11th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What will COVID-19 mean for the largest global cities? Cities are central to property performance. And the largest are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that... 10th August 2021 · 20 mins read
UK Markets Economy and policy to provide a bit less support The recent downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts and the recent hawkish signs from the Bank of England which prompted us to bring forward our forecast of when monetary policy will be tightened... 9th August 2021 · 12 mins read
