US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank to take a chance on “QT” next year Housing market valuations in Sweden are even more stretched than on past occasions when the Riksbank has “leant against the wind” – that is, set policy tighter than needed to contain consumer price... 1st September 2021 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) The unexpectedly large rise in house prices in August is yet another reason to think that house price growth will shrug off the end of the stamp duty holiday. It also suggests our forecast that house... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The drag from the current lockdowns on the housing market won’t last, but we expect house price growth to slow in earnest next year as affordability constraints bite. 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun) House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier Common... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish retail rents to rebound from next year We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) The fall in July’s net lending total was the fastest drop since last July. As investment activity remained healthy and the economic recovery remains solid, it is likely that lenders restricted further... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) Mortgage approvals continued to fall back in July as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, but they remained above pre-COVID-19 levels. Timely indicators suggest that demand will be resilient even when... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New supply won’t have major impact on industrial rental growth Despite a higher construction pipeline for distribution warehouses, we think that a high share of pre-let space, coupled with strong demand, means vacancy will only be 20bps higher over the next few... 27th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing proposals unlikely to amount to much Housing has emerged as one of the key issues in the federal election campaign but, even if some of the latest proposals are implemented, we doubt that they would have much impact on house prices. 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property comedown, vaccine setback The macro backdrop behind Evergrande’s latest profit warning is a rapidly cooling property market. Home sales have fallen below 2019 levels in recent weeks, with the prop to demand from excess... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update How vulnerable are house prices to a rise in rates? Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Robust demand and limited stock to support prices The housing market cooled in July as the stamp duty holiday began to unwind. Newly agreed sales and buyer enquiries dropped back, annual house price growth began to stabilise, and transactions fell... 25th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Strong investor demand Data for Q2 confirm that, as with the economic recovery, the property upturn is more advanced in Scandinavia than in western Europe. Investment activity grew strongly, even when excluding a large one... 25th August 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Slow and uneven revival to continue The economic recovery has lost some momentum over the summer, but we expect that this will be a temporary setback and the backdrop will be strong into the medium term. There is growing evidence of a... 25th August 2021 · 26 mins read
