Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Tariffs to push Canada into recession We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level that will likely push the economy into recession. The downturn should be only moderate if, as... 27th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Higher interest rates weaken the recovery Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of... 27th March 2025 · 28 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Export slowdown looms as domestic drags persist Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal... 26th March 2025 · 16 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook US Office Metros Outlook: Southern metros set for clear outperformance The divergence between the struggling western metros and the better-performing southern metros remains the key story in office markets. That expectation is underpinned by both higher office... 25th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 25) We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level... 25th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Feb. 2025) After a large partly weather-driven fall in January, last month’s small rebound in new home sales was a little underwhelming but still illustrates that the market for new homes is in decent shape. 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2025) The solid 0.5% m/m rise in house prices in January and accompanying pick-up in house price inflation to 4.7%, from 4.6%, confirms that the market has stopped cooling for now. While we still expect... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Dutch residential to outperform in the euro-zone Residential has been the Netherlands’ strongest performing commercial property sector since the GFC, with bumper rent growth a key contributor to that outperformance. Looking ahead, slower wage growth... 24th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Mar. 25) Gilt yields should fall back this year, but with property looking somewhat overvalued we doubt that will trigger much in the way of yield compression. That means the recovery in all-property returns... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Feb 2025) The small rise in existing home sales in February is unlikely to mark the start of a period of strength for buying activity given that purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Remote work is here to stay in UK, US and EU Despite numerous reports of firms rowing back on remote work, the evidence in the UK, US and the EU suggests that the share of jobs being done remotely has remained constant over the past couple of... 20th March 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update PREA consensus forecasts still well above our US CRE returns The latest PREA consensus forecasts reveal a downward revision in total returns and capital value changes across most sectors, especially for offices and industrial. However, the consensus remains... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Feb. 2025) The sharp rebound in housing starts in February and healthy permit issuance shows that the housing market is still holding up well. Nonetheless, with tariff concerns continuing to weigh on... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar. 2025) While unseasonably severe winter weather has undoubtedly played some role in the recent weakness of home sales, we suspect the sharp drop in house prices in February can also be blamed on the growing... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK rental demand to cool, but it won’t collapse The surge in rental demand is over, but rental demand will probably remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. That suggests the prop to rents growth in 2025 and 2026 from solid demand will fade only... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
