US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2024)

The increase in existing home sales in November, despite rising mortgage rates and weakening mortgage applications the month before, points to stronger demand from cash buyers, possibly driven by...

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Oversupply will keep CEE logistics in a rut in 2025

The non-euro-zone central European logistics markets have been Europe’s worst performing in 2024 as prime rents have fallen across the region. 2025 will herald more of the same, as oversupply keeps...

19th December 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. That will limit yield compression, and the...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economic Outlook

Strong start to 2025 unlikely to be sustained

The near-term economic outlook has brightened, with lower interest rates feeding through and consumption benefitting from the recent strong pace of real income growth. That should help to drive...

18th December 2024 · 14 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Nov. 2024)

The decline in housing starts in November was entirely due to weakness in multifamily construction, which outweighed a post-hurricane rebound in single-family construction. The rise in permits to a...

18th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Trump tariffs would drag on port-centric industrial hubs

The incoming Trump administration is threatening to put new tariffs on European exports. In our view, given their limited macroeconomic impact, they will not be a game-changer for commercial property...

18th December 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

The sharp rise in transactions in October and the acceleration in house price growth in November suggest some relief rally or pent-up demand after the Budget is more than offsetting the recent rises...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived

China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more...

17th December 2024 · 16 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Housing Watch (Dec. 2024)

The rise in home sales in November builds on the jump in October and is particularly positive considering some buyers may have held off from purchases ahead of the new mortgage rules that took effect...

16th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh

The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery

The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than...

12th December 2024 · 27 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

What’s really happening with new build house prices?

The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) November house price data release indicates unusually large increases in new build house prices in recent months. We suspect that this reported rise does not...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths

Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024)

November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What happens if gilt yields don’t fall back?

Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back...

11th December 2024 · 4 mins read