Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America: is another debt crisis brewing? Fiscal risks in Latin America have largely been out of the spotlight over the past year, but we think that public debt concerns will build over the coming years. Sovereign defaults seem more likely... 22nd November 2023 · 17 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (November 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2023) The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, suggests that growth over the year as a whole will... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal worries, Panama protests, Colombia rates Fiscal risks have reared their head again in Brazil amid comments from President Lula that the government may no longer aim for a balanced primary budget in 2024. In the near-term, any fiscal slippage... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Massa vs. Milei, Colombia-China, Chile’s peso worries In Argentina, investors’ nerves have been calmed a little after Sergio Massa, the Peronist presidential candidate who came top in the first round vote, showed signs of moderation. But likely fiscal... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Labour markets cooling, but wage growth remains strong There are mounting signs that labour market conditions in many parts of Latin America are starting to loosen, but wages are still rising at a rapid pace and it will take time for wage growth to return... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador votes, Mexico’s construction boom Polls suggest that centre-right candidate Daniel Noboa will win Ecuador's presidential election on Sunday, which would alleviate some of the pressure on the public finances. But we think it’s unlikely... 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America better placed to face rising US yields Spillovers from rising US Treasury yields have hit Latin American financial markets harder than those of most other EMs. But the good news is that current account deficits in the region have narrowed... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
