Latin America Economics Update Colombian industry to remain under pressure Today’s Colombian GDP data were strong, but they also signal that a boom in the natural resources sector is harming other parts of the economy – notably industry. As a result, we doubt that GDP will... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook brightens, Mexico to stay ahead of Brazil Growth in Latin America has accelerated in recent months and we expect the upturn to continue in most countries over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen in... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters still struggling Latin American exporters remain stuck in rut. We estimate that the region’s export revenues grew by a mere 1% in 2012. A key factor in this poor performance has been that the prices of commodities –... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Low inflation leaves room for more rate cuts A combination of weak economic growth and low inflation suggest that Colombian interest rates have further to fall. We now expect a further 50bps of cuts to 3.25% over the coming months. 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to remain lower for longer The slowdown in Colombian growth has been driven as much by structural as by cyclical factors, and suggests that interest rates could remain low for an extended period. We expect at least one more... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A new front in the "currency war" An improvement in risk appetite since the turn of the year has supported further gains in Latin American financial markets. But with the good news has come renewed upward pressure on the region’s... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bright start to the year as global tensions ease This is the first edition of our new monthly Latin America Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall further as growth falters Record levels of foreign direct investment into the commodities sector suggest that Dutch Disease will continue to drag on the Colombian economy this year. We expect policymakers to react with another... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian GDP growth to slow further in 2013 The unexpectedly sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth in Q3 supports our non-consensus view that interest rates are likely to fall further. In fact, we think the central bank is now likely to cut... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth picking up, but 2013 set to be a testing year Growth in Latin America has accelerated in the final months of this year. We reckon that regional GDP is on course to expand by just over 3% y/y in Q4, up from less than 2.5% y/y in Q3. This should... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A better end to the year Latin America appears to be enjoying an end of year growth spurt. We estimate that regional GDP growth accelerated to around 3% y/y in Q3, from a three-year low of 2.5% y/y in Q2. What’s more, growth... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian easing cycle not yet over Colombian interest rates will probably fall further next year as external headwinds cause GDP growth to slow. By contrast, a weaker global economy could be helpful for Peru, where the latest economic... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to slow amid global headwinds The economies of Latin America will continue to outperform their peers in the developed world over the coming quarters, but growth is set to slow in 2013 and will be lacklustre by the standards of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
