Latin America Economics Update Colombian industry still has a competitiveness problem The recent depreciation of the peso does not appear to have fully reversed the loss of competitiveness suffered by Colombian industry during the past decade. As a result, while the worst of the... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fed sends markets reeling Latin American bonds, equities and currencies have slumped over the past month after the US Fed signalled its intention to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year. But while financial... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Latin American currencies? The sharp falls in Latin American currencies over the past month mean that many are now below our end-year targets, which looked extremely bearish only a few months ago. But while we think the trend... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Slower growth to become the new norm Economic growth across Latin America was weaker than expected in Q1. We estimate that regional GDP increased by about 2.2% y/y, down from 2.8% y/y in Q4 of last year – the slowest pace since 2009... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American equities underperform The recent weakness of Latin American stock markets has continued unabated in May, with returns well below those of developed and emerging market equity benchmarks. Going forward, we expect stocks to... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Hidden vulnerabilities Latin American GDP growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2009 in the first quarter of this year and, while we expect to see a gradual recovery over the coming quarters, mounting vulnerabilities will... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth softens The past month has brought further signs that the recovery in economic growth in Latin America that began in mid-2012 is now running into headwinds. Admittedly, calendar effects have probably... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mining stocks take a hit Latin American equities have mostly sold off over the past month, compounding an already weak start to the year. Hardest hit have been the large mining firms based in the Andes, many of whom appear to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates on hold for foreseeable future The Colombian government’s stimulus package may boost industry at the margin, but it is unlikely to solve the problem of an overvalued peso and widening economic imbalances. As a result, we doubt that... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Region increasingly vulnerable to lower commodity prices The slump in commodity markets last week has raised questions over how exposed Latin America is to a period of lower prices. While the risks vary from country-to-country, the bigger picture is that... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China's slowdown: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think these concerns are justified. But while Latin... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico reform programme takes shape The Mexican economy has slowed since the start of the year, taking some of the shine off of one of Latin America’s more positive growth stories. Nonetheless, we expect the economy to rebound later... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rate-cutting cycle over We suspect that the interest rate cutting cycle in Colombia has come to an end. Admittedly, to the extent that there are changes in the next 6-9 months, rates are more likely to fall than rise. But... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Domestic demand offsets external weakness Growth in Latin America has continued to rebound in recent months. But while the economy is on course to expand by about 3% y/y in Q1, the pace of growth remains far below the 5-6% y/y rates that were... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rates to remain low for an extended period We suspect that the decision by the Colombian central bank to reduce interest rates by 50bps to 3.25% was an attempt to front-load rate cuts rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso bucks EM sell-off Latin American assets and currencies have sold off over the past month as a weaker pace of emerging market growth and fears of an escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis have weighed on investor... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
