Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico losing its fiscal discipline? Plans to run a substantially wider budget deficit in 2014 have raised concerns that the Mexican government is losing fiscal discipline. But while a spending splurge is a major risk to an otherwise... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for another year Relatively subdued GDP growth looks set to ensure that interest rates in Colombia will remain lower forlonger than most expect. We think that the benchmark rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.25... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets find their feet after summer sell-off Latin American financial markets have bounced back in September, snapping a three-month losing streak. While the US Fed’s decision to delay tapering does little to change our fundamental view on the... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth accelerates in Q2 but falters at start of Q3 The raft of official GDP data released over the past month confirmed that, having slowed sharply since the start of 2012, growth in Latin America picked up pace in the second quarter of this year. We... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Strong Q2 growth to temper talk of a rate cut Stronger-than-expected second quarter GDP growth in Colombia may temper expectations of interest rate cuts at next week’s monetary policy meeting. We continue to expect rates remain unchanged at 3.25%... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fed tapering and Latin America: a recap All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s US FOMC meeting in anticipation of the announcement that the Fed will begin scaling back its programme of asset purchases under QE3. But for the economies of... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies have not fully restored competitiveness The depreciation of exchange rates across Latin America since May only goes part of the way to restoring external competitiveness that has been lost over the past five years. As such, we suspect that... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dovish statement to temper expectation of rate hikes in Colombia The dovish tone of the Colombian central bank’s monetary policy announcement supports our view that interest rates will remain lower for longer than most expect. We would not rule out further rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady following Q2 rout Latin American financial markets have steadied in July after a sharp sell-off over the previous couple of months. We suspect that markets will stay under pressure in the near term. However, the worst... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Investment plan another reason to expect Mexico rebound The poor performance of the Mexican economy so far this year has been one of the biggest disappointments in Latin America. In this Watch we explain why, in contrast to Brazil, the slowdown owes more... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s commodity boom – an opportunity missed When all’s said and done, the commodity price boom of the past decade will probably go down as a wasted opportunity for the economies of Latin America. Rather than saving and investing their windfall... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
