Latin America Economics Update Brazil heads deeper into the fiscal mire It is, in truth, too soon to expect any improvement in Brazil’s public finances as a result of the belt-tightening measures introduced over the past few months, but the fact that the fiscal position... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: limited room for interest rate cuts this year Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday night and above target inflation and a large current account deficit limit the room for monetary easing to counter slowing economic... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Colombia’s current account Colombia’s current account deficit widened to its largest level on record last year as exports plummeted following the drop in oil prices. Narrowing the deficit in the absence of a rebound in oil... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency rout rules out further policy easing Currencies across Latin America have continued to weaken against the dollar over the past month. Concerns that this could trigger a spate of crises in the region seem overdone. However, one... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s central bank to tread carefully Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday and, although the latest sell-off in the peso and above-target inflation has weakened the case for rate cuts in the near-term, we... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: case for interest rate cuts building Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but a slightly more dovish tone in the accompanying statement, combined with the announcement of budget cuts over the weekend... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rate cuts still on the cards Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but, while the accompanying statement remained relatively balanced, the downward revision to this year’s GDP growth forecast suggests... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: weakest growth since 2009 to trigger rate cuts The continued slide in oil prices will weigh heavily on Colombia’s economy. We have lowered our 2015 GDP growth forecast to just 2.5% (from 3.8% previously), which is well below the 4.3% forecasted by... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) Colombia maintained a relatively strong pace of growth in the third quarter, seemingly driven by construction and agriculture. However, given the recent oil price falls, we expect the economy to lose... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: will the next move in interest rates be down? Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% today but, with the risks to economic growthskewed to the downside and inflation under control, we think that rate cuts are becoming... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
