Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Tide turning against Temer While the eyes of the world have been focused on the fallout from the US election, domestic political risks have resurfaced in Brazil. The latest controversy surrounds allegations that President Temer... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) The sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth, to just 1.2% y/y in Q3 from 2.0% y/y in Q2, was due in part to the effects of a truck drivers’ strike. With the dispute having now ended, Q3 may prove to be... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Colombia’s tax reform Colombia’s much-anticipated tax reform bill is impressive and, if passed by Congress, would put the public finances on a more sustainable footing. However, it would create some near-term economic pain... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush? The Argentine government’s recent upward revision to its 2017 budget deficit forecast has added to concerns that President Macri’s reform agenda is already starting to slow after less than a year in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political Colombian voters’ rejection of the government’s peace deal with the FARC rebel group is unlikely to signal an immediate return to violence. And, while it is a significant blow to the economy’s medium... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food inflation to fall in Brazil and Colombia, but rise in Mexico Food inflation should ease over the coming months in Brazil and Colombia, which will help to bring down the headline inflation rates in both countries. By contrast, in Mexico, we expect the lagged... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2) The continuing slump in mining output pulled annual growth in Colombia down to just 2.0% y/y in Q2. We expect it to fall further over the second half of the year. 29th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia peace deal won't change near-term economic outlook According to media reports a final peace deal between the Colombian government and the FARC is likely to be announced later today at 6pm local time. This will be an historic milestone and should... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s CA deficit narrows, but more work to do elsewhere The further narrowing of Brazil’s current account deficit in June has significantly reduced the vulnerability of the country’s financial markets to external shocks. Elsewhere, however, there is still... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation will push Colombia into further rate hikes Upside risks to Colombian inflation over the next few months mean that we now expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25bp this month, to 7.75%, with a further hike in August likely... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
