Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s political crisis puts back pension reform The past month has brought some signs that the continuing political crisis in Brazil is starting to weigh on the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform programme. While President Temer’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2) & Peru Econ. Act. (Jun.) The uptick in Colombian GDP growth in Q2 suggests that the economy is probably over the worst. Even so, the recovery in the second half of the year is likely to be weak and we remain comfortable with... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia slows pace of easing, but significant rate cuts still likely The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate cuts to 25bp (from 50bp previously) suggests that policy might not be loosened as aggressively in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to step up the pace of easing caught the consensus off guard, but supports our view that the policy rate will be cut by more than most expect this year. We... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth in Q1 was due in part to a 3%-pt hike in VAT at the start of this year. We expect Q1 to be the bottom, but the risks to our below-consensus GDP growth... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) caught most off guard but was in line with our expectations. The statement accompanying the decision was... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Colombian GDP in Q4 confirms that the worst of the country’s economic downturn has now passed. Higher oil prices should support a further gradual recovery over... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Business investment set to recover Having contracted sharply last year, fixed investment across Latin America looks set to return to growth in 2017. With consumer spending likely to remain under pressure, a pick-up in investment will... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A soft end to 2016 Latin America’s economy has ended 2016 on a relatively downbeat note. The news from Brazil has gone from bad to worse, with both industrial production and retail sales falling in the most recent... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
