Latin America Chart Pack Economic ‘immunity’ improving Latin America is once again the global epicentre of COVID-19 but, from an economic perspective, the region has built up significant immunity to the virus. Indeed, despite the surge in new virus cases... 29th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly COP drop, commodity price rally to the rescue? The ongoing protests against tax hikes in Colombia have increased the risks around the fiscal position and we think that local financial markets and the currency will remain on the backfoot in the... 7th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian protests, vaccine wrap-up Mass protests against tax hikes in Colombia this week have reduced the chances that reforms will be passed (at least without being watered down), putting the sovereign's investment grade rating on... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal U-turn to support the recovery The Colombian government’s shift away from its austere fiscal stance will lead to higher public debt and, more likely than not, a loss of its sovereign investment grade rating. But, from an economic... 11th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: the next fallen angel? It’s unlikely that Colombia’s government will achieve its lofty fiscal targets over the coming years, which may prompt a loss of its investment grade rating – an outcome that is not fully priced into... 18th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: fledgling recovery may already be stalling The 14.9% q/q slump in Colombian GDP in Q2 is not quite there among the worst outturns in the EM world, but it’s not far off. More worryingly, mobility data suggest that the nascent economic recovery... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: still room for another few rate cuts The decision by the Colombian central bank to slow the pace of easing from 50bp to 25bp at last night’s meeting suggests that the rate-cutting cycle is approaching its conclusion. We remain... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s downturn worse than we feared The weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figure, coupled with signs that Q2 is shaping up to be worse than we had initially thought, has prompted us to revise down our estimate for the fall in Colombian GDP... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Are investors too sanguine on Colombian debt? Colombia’s public debt ratio will rise sharply this year and we disagree with the consensus view that it will fall back from 2021. This is likely to limit any recovery in the Colombian bond market... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia cuts rates, more easing in store The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 3.25% left the door open for more easing. Given the scale of the economic hit that we expect, the... 1st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombian growth to slow even if oil prices recover Fears about the coronavirus have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for Colombia’s economy. But even if – as we expect, the virus is brought under control soon and oil prices... 24th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2019) Colombian GDP growth ticked down to 3.4% y/y in Q4 from 3.5% y/y in Q3 and we think that growth will slow further this year. The consensus expectations for growth look too optimistic. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian household spending set to weaken Colombia’s economic recovery since 2017 has been in large part due to strength in private consumption, but we think it will likely slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our 2020 growth... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
