Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits

Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (November 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Currencies across Latin American have held up relatively well in the wake of the...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Latin America’s debt risks revisited

A year ago, we published an in-depth report arguing that the calm prevailing at the time around sovereign debt risks in Latin America wouldn’t last and that public debt dynamics would deteriorate...

20th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Growth in the Andes to disappoint

The latest data suggest that Colombia and Chile underperformed Peru’s economy in Q3. Looking ahead, we think that lower prices for key commodity exports combined with relatively tight fiscal stances...

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia’s public finances: alarm bells ringing

The deterioration in Colombia’s public finances has spooked investors and, with the government showing no clear willingness to rein in spending, Colombian financial assets are likely to remain under...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook

Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued...

1st November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

What China’s export surge means for Latin America

Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

BanRep’s fiscal worries, Chile’s deficit, Brazil’s upgrade

The decision by Colombia’s central bank to maintain rather than step up the pace of easing at this week’s policy meeting suggests that officials there are increasingly worried about the fiscal...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama

Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade...

27th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (September 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth across Latin America is likely to be weaker than most expect in the next...

25th September 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts

The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation

Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus...

19th September 2024 · 19 mins read