Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2023) Chile’s GDP contracted by a shallower-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q2, but the fall in output alongside downwards revisions to GDP growth in Q4 and Q1 will keep the door open for the central bank to... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina votes, more good news on inflation Argentines vote on Sunday in presidential primaries, known as the PASO, which should give a first sign of whether the country will buck the regional political trend and shift to the right at the... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly LatAm central banks kick off easing cycles with a bang The decisions in the past week by central banks in both Chile and Brazil to cut interest rates confirm that Latin America remains at the front of the pack in this global monetary cycle. We think Peru... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s debt upgrade, Argentina-IMF, easing cycles Fitch’s decision to upgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating this week provides another sign that fiscal concerns in the country are easing, but we remain sceptical that the government will be able to... 28th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chile’s recovery is set to surprise on the upside The large macroeconomic imbalances that built up during Chile’s post-pandemic recovery have eased substantially, which is likely to prompt the central bank to deliver more rate cuts than almost any... 17th July 2023 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Public finance risks in Colombia, boom in Mexico? The concerns about Colombia’s public finances that flared up this week are warranted in our view. We think that the public debt burden will remain well above its pre-pandemic level and higher than in... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected decline in inflation in Chile to an 18-month low of 7.6% in June seals the deal on an interest cut at the central bank’s next meeting later this month. If anything... 7th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Strong currencies lend helping hand in inflation fight It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BRL on a tear, monetary policy divergence The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank paves the way for July rate cut The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting have reinforced our view that the easing cycle will commence in July. We... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut soon? Chile’s FX reserves Expectations for interest rate cuts in Brazil have grown in light of recent developments, but, for now, we’re sticking with our view that Copom will hold off on lowering interest rates until November... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strong wage growth to temper falls in inflation and rates The tightening of labour markets across Latin America in the past year or so has fuelled rapid wage growth in many economies and wage growth is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while yet... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian asset rally, encouraging inflation news Hopes that the latest political drama in Colombia will cause President Gustavo Petro's reform agenda to stall have sparked a rally in the country’s financial markets this week. But with the current... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
