Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jan.) A strong rebound in mining output led to a sharp rise in industrial production in January. But mining output is volatile and we wouldn’t read too much into this. Even so, there are signs from the rest... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No further rate cuts in Chile, but more to come in Peru Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and, while we do not expect further monetary stimulus in Chile as its economy is finally showing signs of strengthening, we think... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 7.1% last month was driven by a combination of higher food prices, caused by the continuing droughts, and increases in regulated prices as part of the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Chile recovered in the fourth quarter of last year. But the bigger picture is that growth over 2014 as a whole was probably just 1.8%, the... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surprise rate cut in Peru, further reductions to come Although the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Peru caught us (and the market) by surprise, we had been one of the few forecasters expecting rates to fall in the first half of this year. The... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Brazil industrial production in November leaves it on course to contract in Q4 and suggests the economy ended 2014 on a predictably weak footing. GDP is likely to have done little... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to fall further in 2015 Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night but, with the economic recovery expected to be slow-going and inflation likely to have peaked, we are sticking to our non-consensus... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Easing cycle not over in Chile Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged last night at 3.00% and, although policymakers continued to signal the end of the easing cycle, we still think that it has a little further to run. With... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Acc. (Q3) Annual GDP growth in Chile dropped to a five-year low in Q3, but on a quarterly basis growth edged up a little. We expect a further, albeit gradual, recovery over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation last month will come as a welcome relief to policymakers but is unlikely to prevent interest rates from rising further over the coming months... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy slowed further in Q3 Data for September suggest that conditions in some parts of Chile’s economy – notably manufacturing – improved following a weak performance in August. But the bigger picture is that GDP growth appears... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
