Latin America Economics Update Chile: further interest rate cuts unlikely Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 2.50%, but with the economy showing tentative signs of recovery, we think the easing cycle is over for now. We expect the policy... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) Chile’s economy narrowly avoided entering a technical recession in Q1 and, while growth has all but ground to a halt in recent quarters, there are tentative signs of a recovery. Meanwhile, the current... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Chilean inflation remained weak at 2.7% y/y in April, but even so, with the economy finally showing tentative signs of picking up, the central bank is likely to pause its easing cycle at next week’s... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Mar.) Chilean economic activity data for March suggest that the economy avoided entering a technical recession in Q1, albeit only by the smallest of margins. And there are tentative signs that the economy... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest drop in Brazilian inflation leaves it only a whisker above the BCB’s central target and probably seals the deal on a larger 100bp cut in interest rates at next week’s Copom meeting. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Feb.) The contraction in Chilean economic activity in February largely reflects a strike at the country’s largest copper mine, which has now come to an end. But the rest of the economy also weakened and... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Revised GDP data point to economy facing recession Revised Chilean GDP data confirmed that annual growth slowed to a seven-year low in Q4. They also revealed that the economy contracted from the previous quarter. With a strike at the country’s largest... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, and used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is likely over the coming months. This supports our non-consensus... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) & Chile CPI (Feb.) The small 0.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in January is partly payback for a 2.3% m/m surge in December, and we think the recovery should resume over the coming months. Elsewhere, the... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Jan.) The latest activity data for Chile suggest that the economy rebounded from Q4’s slump in January, but with a strike at a major mine set to hit copper output in February, we suspect that growth is... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile pauses easing cycle, but more rate cuts to come The decision by Chile’s central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 3.25% came as a bit of a surprise, but it only marks a pause in the easing cycle and we expect the policy rate to fall to 2.50%... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) Chilean activity data for December were relatively encouraging, but it still looks like GDP may have contracted in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms between Q3 and Q4. As such, the central bank is likely... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
