Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2024) The 1.9% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q1 confirms that the economy is gathering momentum following a weak 2023 and has prompted us to revise up our (once above consensus) 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.8... 20th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily LatAm currencies may weaken despite hawkish bias The hawkish tone of Latin American central banks this week supports our view that loosening cycles in the region will proceed more gradually than many anticipate. But even so, we think most Latin... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The slightly larger-than-expected rise in Chile’s inflation to 4.0% y/y in April supports our view that the central bank will once again slow the pace of easing with a 50bp cut (to 6.00%) at its... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Chilean peso We think the headwinds driving the depreciation of the Chilean peso against the US dollar have largely run their course. We expect the Chilean peso to recover some ground by the end of the year. 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Services inflation concerns, Peru’s pension withdrawal The downside headline inflation surprises from some of the region's major economies this week mask the continued strength in underlying core services inflation. Stubborn underlying price pressures... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Chile’s inflation to 3.7% y/y in March has increased the chances of the central bank delivering another 75bp cut at its next meeting in May, although we still think... 8th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico hawks, Panama downgrade, Peru’s ‘Rolexgate’ The hawkish tone of the Banxico minutes released this week adds weight to our view that the easing cycle in Mexico will be very gradual and we think it's most likely that rates will be kept on hold at... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: easing cycle entering a slower phase The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today confirms that policymakers have been spooked by the inflation surprises at the start of the year and has... 3rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s concerns, Maduro tests the US, Chile’s lithium The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. Meanwhile, developments in Venezuela this week mean that it now... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q4 2023) The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
