Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to Chile’s short-term debt than meets the eye Chile’s short-term external debt burden is one of the largest in the emerging world, but there is more to it than meets the eye. A large chunk reflects intercompany lending, and most of this is... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile to shift into tightening mode in next 6-9 months The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% was slightly less dovish than its last, supporting our view that the central bank will shift... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina the exception rather than the rule Argentina’s currency crisis has put the spotlight on the country’s growing economic fragilities, but vulnerabilities in the region’s other major economies have diminished in recent years. Current... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q1 was broad based and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our above-consensus forecast for... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected decline in Chilean inflation, from 2.0% y/y in February to 1.8% y/y in March, is unlikely to convince the central bank to restart its easing cycle. We expect inflation to rise... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia still open to rate cuts, Chile on hold for now Colombia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% last night, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing in the near term. Meanwhile, Chile’s central bank kept... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q4 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for the Andes? We expect recoveries in Colombia, Chile and Peru to continue over the coming years as investment strengthens and consumer spending picks up. There are downside risks to the outlook – namely large... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian consumer prices last month, of 2.9% y/y, unchanged from December, reinforces our view that the rise in inflation over the course of this year will be... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse The admission by World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer that the drop in Chile’s ranking in its annual Doing Business survey in recent years is due almost entirely to changes in how the survey is... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Chilean inflation in the final month of 2017, to 2.3% y/y, was driven largely by an increase in food inflation – core inflation rose only marginally and remained below the central bank’s... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Piñera prevails but reform agenda will meet resistance Sebastián Piñera won the second round of Chile’s presidential election, but difficulties in Congress may make it hard to implement parts of his market-friendly reform agenda, including cuts to the... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s data confirm that the sharp drop in inflation in Brazil is bottoming out. This supports the view that Copom is likely to slow the pace of easing at this month’s policy meeting. 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Lat Am markets cools, but strong Q3 overall Latin America’s financial markets have come under a bit of pressure over the past week or so but the bigger picture is that they have had a strong Q3 overall, comfortably outperforming markets in... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
