Latin America Economics Update What next for interest rates in the Andes? The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in Chile means we now think that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle until next year (previously we expected 50bp of hikes... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation last month reinforces Copom’s dovish message delivered in this week’s policy communiqué, and keeps rate hikes off the table for now. Elsewhere, the larger... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile hikes rates but strikes less hawkish tone The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 3.00% last night was slightly less hawkish than the previous one, and supports our view for fewer rate... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in November, to 4.1% y/y (from 4.6% y/y in October), reinforces our view that Copom won’t rush to tighten policy. We expect the Selic rate to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75% last night suggested that this was only a brief pause in its tightening cycle. We continue to think that... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) Chilean inflation decline from 3.1% to 2.9% y/y in October, but with the headline rate likely to resume its upward trend this month and recent labour market data improving, we still think that another... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: soft labour market temporary, rates to rise further The recent uptick in Chilean unemployment has prompted some analysts to suggest that interest rates may not rise much further. But the central bank doesn’t seem too concerned and we think that any... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to increase its policy rate by 25bp last night to 2.75%, suggested that a gradual tightening cycle would lie in store over the next 12-18... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The sizeable rise in Chilean inflation to 3.1% y/y in September, taken together with hawkish comments from policymakers, supports our view that rates will begin to rise at the central bank’s meeting... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The third consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. Accordingly, assuming the peso holds up reasonably well between now and... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Chile and Peru to hold up well The surge in GDP growth in Q2 to more than 5% in Chile and Peru probably marks the peak in both countries’ economic cycle. But there is still some spare capacity left. And, as a result, we expect that... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The surge in Chilean GDP growth to 5.3% y/y in Q2 was driven mainly by a pick-up in domestic demand, and is likely to mark the peak in the cycle. Growth is likely to soften gradually from here. And... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation rose to a higher-than-expected 4.5% y/y last month, but this reflects higher food and energy inflation which the central bank has made clear it will look through. Underlying price... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate hikes on the horizon in Chile The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are moving towards tightening. This supports... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
