Latin America Economics Update Weakness in Chilean consumption will be temporary Chile’s economic slowdown this year was mostly due to weaker private consumption, caused by a fall in consumer confidence. But with the labour market strengthening and copper prices likely to rise... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Aug.) The small rise in Brazilian inflation (to 3.4%y/y in August) is unlikely to trouble policymakers at the central bank. With the headline rate below target and the economy struggling, we expect a 50bp... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile CB slashes rates, leaves door open for more Yesterday’s MPC statement suggested that Chilean policymakers will follow yesterday’s 50bp cut with more easing. The latest growth and inflation data have been weak, and there is a window for further... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 1.6% y/y in Q1 to 1.9% y/y in Q2, is likely to mark the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Jul.) The decline in inflation in Brazil and Chile in July points to further monetary easing, and we currently expect a 25bp interest rate cut in both countries next month. In Brazil, with pension reform... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rate cut likely to be a one-off We think that the surprise decision by Chilean policymakers to cut the policy interest rate by 50bp on Friday night to 2.50% will prove to be a one off. Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile CPI (May) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.7% y/y in May, is set to be followed by further declines, taking it below the central bank’s target. So long as the economy recovers from its recent weak patch... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 3.6% y/y in Q4 to 1.6% y/y in Q1 was due to weak domestic demand and problems in the copper sector, which hit exports. And while the consensus expects a strong... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) Chilean inflation picked up from 1.7% y/y in February to 2.0% y/y in March, but we still think that the central bank is unlikely to restart its tightening cycle until 2021. 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank signals lower for longer The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 3.00% on Friday night signalled that rates are likely to stay on hold for longer than they had previously... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 2.6% y/y in Q3 to 3.6% y/y in Q4 was driven in large part by stronger domestic demand, but this has also caused the current account deficit to widen rapidly... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean inflation data for February of 1.7% y/y (down from 1.8% y/y in January), means that we are increasingly comfortable with our forecast for rates to be left on hold at 3... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for interest rates in the Andes? The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in Chile means we now think that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle until next year (previously we expected 50bp of hikes... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation last month reinforces Copom’s dovish message delivered in this week’s policy communiqué, and keeps rate hikes off the table for now. Elsewhere, the larger... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile hikes rates but strikes less hawkish tone The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 3.00% last night was slightly less hawkish than the previous one, and supports our view for fewer rate... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
